基于元胞自动机的城市土地利用预测模型研究——以美国佛罗里达州 Orange County为例

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2012, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (6): 85-92.

基于元胞自动机的城市土地利用预测模型研究——以美国佛罗里达州 Orange County为例

孙健^*1，章立辉²，彭春露¹，彭仲仁^1,3，徐猛⁴

1.上海交通大学船舶海洋与建筑工程学院交通研究中心，上海 200240； 2.大连理工大学　交通运输学院，　辽宁　大连　116024； 3.佛罗里达大学城市与区域规划系，佛罗里达州盖恩斯维尔 FL 32601，美国； 4.北京交通大学　交通运输学院，北京　100044

收稿日期:2012-03-06 修回日期:2012-03-25 出版日期:2012-12-25 发布日期:2012-12-29
作者简介:孙健（1978-）,男，安徽芜湖人，博士，特别研究员，博士生导师.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目（71101109,71071014）; 上海市科委重点项目（10231202401）.

CA Based Urban Land Use Prediction Model: A Case Study on Orange County, Florida, U.S.

SUN Jian ¹,ZHAANG Li-hui²,PENG Chun-lu ¹,PENG Zhong-ren ^1,3,XU Meng ⁴

1. Transportation Research Center, School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China;2. School of Transportation Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian　116024,　Liaoning, China; 3. Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Florida, Gainesville FL 32611, USA;4. School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing100044,China

Received:2012-03-06 Revised:2012-03-25 Online:2012-12-25 Published:2012-12-29

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

长期以来，作为城市规划研究热点，城市土地利用和交通之间相互影响的研究相对脱节.近年来，该状况逐渐得到改观，研究人员开始将交通规划与城市用地布局方式相联系.本研究主要模拟给定城市区域土地利用的时空变化过程，帮助正确认识及处理城市交通发展与土地利用的相互关系.研究针对美国佛罗里达州Orange County 1990年与2000年土地利用类型的变化，利用元胞自动机(CA)在微观土地利用，空间格局等方面的优势，采用地理信息系统动态模型来实现海量数据的获取、储存以及更新.同时，借助MatLAB软件的数学计算能力，开发出基于逻辑回归的元胞自动机土地预测模型.基于实际土地利用的模拟结果表明，该模型充分利用元胞自动机的特点及优势，合理考虑土地利用系统中时空变量的复杂性，结果可靠，为正确理解土地利用变化提供了很好的帮助.

关键词: 智能交通, 土地利用, 元胞自动机模型, 地理信息系统, 逻辑回归

Abstract:

For a long time, interactions between land use and transportation have been one of the research hotspots in urban planning, which however, has not been investigated in much detail until recently. This paper started from spatial changes of regional land use, with an objective of understanding the relationship between trip generation and urban land use. Cellular automata and geographical information system techniques were used to store and update the spatial data dynamically. In addition, MATLAB software was adopted to conduct the logistic regression using land use/land cover data from Orange Country, Florida, U.S. (1990 and 2000). With fully utilizing the advantages of cellular automaton models, simulation results indicate the enhenced reliability of the model, which consequently assists to understand evolution of urban land uses. 

Key words: intelligent transportation, land use, cellular automaton, geographical information systems, logistic regression

中图分类号:

U412.1

孙健，章立辉，彭春露，彭仲仁，徐猛. 基于元胞自动机的城市土地利用预测模型研究——以美国佛罗里达州 Orange County为例[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2012, 12(6): 85-92.

SUN Jian,ZHANG Li-hui,PENG Chun-lu,PENG Zhong-ren,XU Meng. CA Based Urban Land Use Prediction Model: A Case Study on Orange County, Florida, U.S.[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2012, 12(6): 85-92.

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链接本文: http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/abstract/abstract18497.shtml

http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2012/V12/I6/85

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