关键词: 城市交通, 出行方式选择, 随机系数Logit 模型, 出行者心理因素, 机动化出行, 个人特征

Abstract:

There is of great importance of travel mode choice analysis on the analysis and prediction of travelers' travel behavior. However, most of papers related to value of time assumed that travelers' preferences were consistent within a group, which is inconsistent with the fact. The random parameters Logit model allows parameter values to vary across the population, and can analyze the impact of travelers' demographic characteristics on parameters. This paper analyzes the motorized travel in the city with the random parameter Logit model. In consideration of impact of the latent psychological factor on travelers' mode choice, this paper also takes into account of travelers' demand of comfort, reliability and flexibility when traveling. The result shows that the random parameters Logit model fitting the data much better than the traditional discrete choice model. From the result, it can be concluded that, the parameter of walk time is non-random. However, the parameter of in-vehicle time is random, and is affected by travelers' marriage, car-ownership, commute-by-car-or-not, whether the monthly income is more than 10 000 Yuan or not, and the requirement of flexibility when traveling.

Key words: urban traffic, travel mode choice, random parameter Logit model, motorized travel, travelers' psychological factors