关键词: 城市交通, 公交预测控制, 乘客动态感知, 驻站&mdash, 限流, 元胞自动机仿真

Abstract:

To reduce bus bunching and improve the perceived satisfaction of passengers, this work proposes an integrated bus holding and limited- boarding strategy based on predictive control method, which considers the dynamic perception of passengers. Based on a predictive control optimization model minimizing the perceived waiting time of the total passengers on the bus line, a differential evolution algorithm is used to obtain the optimal holding time and boarding limits on target stop. Four control policies are studied in a cellular automata simulation model to compare the control effects: holding strategy(H), limited boarding strategy(LB), holding and limitedboarding strategy without considering passengers' perception(HLB); holding and limited- boarding strategy considering passengers' perception(HLBP). Five kinds of bus operation scenes are designed to compare the adaptability of HLB and HLBP to the fluctuation of passenger arrival rate and alighting ratio. The results show HLBP outperforms other control schemes in terms of reduction to perceived waiting time, and has better adaptability to the fluctuation of arrival rate and alighting ratio of passengers.

Key words: urban traffic, bus predictive control, dynamic perception of passengers, holding and limitedboarding, cellular automaton simulation