关键词: 航空运输, 容量需求预测, 交通流动力学演化模型, 航路扇区容量, 空域规划

Abstract:

This paper proposes a prediction method for the future capacity demand of en-route sectors, which can be further used to airspace planning as traffic demand continues growing in the future. An en-route network traffic flow dynamic model, characterizing dynamics of traffic flow, is proposed to describe dynamic evolution process of traffic flow in the air route network. Then the yearly city-pair air traffic demand can be propagated into the entire en-route network, and the temporal and spatial traffic demand in the en-route airspace is obtained. On this basis, the future capacity demand of en- route airspace is predicted based on the time and space distribution of traffic demand in the network. A case study of two en- route sectors demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed prediction framework The result indicates that the capacity demands of the two sectors will increase from 50 aircraft/h and 39 aircraft/h to 70 aircraft/h and 45 aircraft/h in the next 5 years.

Key words: air transportation, capacity demand prediction, evolution model of network traffic flow, capacity of en-route sector, airspace planning