关键词: 城市交通, 适度规模, Lotka-Volterra模型, 网约车, 出租车

Abstract: To determine the appropriate scale of urban online ride-hailing and taxi and to promote the healthy development, the Lotka-Volterra evolution model of online ride-hailing and taxi under the environment of competition, cooperation and co- opetition was established based on the co-evolution theory. The data simulation analysis was conducted to determine the appropriate scale of the online ride-hailing and the taxi in different environments when they reach the equilibrium state. The results show that the evolution of online ride- hailing and the taxi is related to the coefficient of competition and cooperation effect. In the competition environment, the fierce competition can eliminate the markets of disadvantage, and the dominant party finally reach the scale threshold. When the competition tends to ease, the two parties can achieve balance and stability in the market after the coexistence. In the cooperation environment, both of them have a large space for development, which can better promote the integration and development of new and old formats. In the co- opetition environment, the development trend of the two parties are similar to that of the competition environment, but cooperation can delay the extinction rate of the inferior party. Finally, it puts forward some suggestions to promote the fair competition between online ride-hailing and the taxi, give consideration to the old and new forms of business, and promote the integrated development.

Key words: urban traffic, appropriate scale, Lotka-Volterra model, online ride-hailing, taxi