考虑多重气候政策和随机需求的绿色航线设计

doi:10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2026.05.009

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2026, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (5): 112-121.DOI: 10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2026.05.009

考虑多重气候政策和随机需求的绿色航线设计

张燕^*，凌仕琪，郑建风

大连海事大学，交通运输工程学院，辽宁大连116026

收稿日期:2026-04-08 修回日期:2026-05-28 接受日期:2026-06-30 出版日期:2026-10-25 发布日期:2026-10-21
作者简介:张燕（1982— ），女，陕西凤翔人，副教授，博士。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(72371046)。

Green Shipping Route Design Considering Multiple Climate Policies and Stochastic Demand

ZHANG Yan^*, LING Shiqi, ZHENG Jianfeng

School of Transportation Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, Liaoning, China

Received:2026-04-08 Revised:2026-05-28 Accepted:2026-06-30 Online:2026-10-25 Published:2026-10-21
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China (72371046)。

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 随着全球降碳目标的持续推进，排放控制区、碳税及绿色走廊等多重气候政策密集出台。如何降低环境合规成本并维持航线利润，已成为班轮运输企业面临的严峻挑战。本文综合考虑多种气候政策与需求不确定性的复合情境，提出一种采用多类型船舶进行中转运输的绿色航线设计问题。为求解该问题，构建两阶段随机规划模型，协同优化各段航线上的配船、航线挂靠、航速设定及舱位分配等决策。通过分段航速的优化消除模型中的非线性项，采用样本均值近似方法处理需求的不确定性，并设计Benders分解算法提升模型的求解效率。通过多组算例验证模型与算法的有效性，并以中欧航线为实例，分析不同气候政策下的最优运营策略。结果表明：当排放控制区和碳税同时实施时，采用燃油船转运至双燃料船的中转航线，相比当前单一船舶的环形航线运输，碳排放可降低约22%，航次利润可提升近4%；当碳税价格翻倍时，则更适合投入纯绿色动力船，此时，碳排放可减少约72%。本文可为航运企业制定适配气候政策的绿色转型方案提供科学的决策依据。

关键词: 水路运输, 班轮航线设计, 随机规划, 排放控制区, 碳税

Abstract: As the global carbon reduction targets continue to advance, the multiple climate policies such as emission control areas, carbon taxes, and green corridors are being rolled out rapidly. How to reduce environmental compliance costs while maintaining route profitability becomes a pressing challenge for liner shipping operators. This paper addresses this challenge by proposing a green route design problem. It integrates multiple climate policies and demand uncertainties, employing multiple vessel types for transshipment operations. A two-stage stochastic programming model is developed to jointly optimize the vessel deployment, port calling, sailing speed, and capacity allocation across shipping segments. Nonlinearities are neutralized via segment-specific speed optimization, and demand uncertainty is mitigated through a sample average approximation approach. To ensure solution tractability, a specialized Benders decomposition algorithm is engineered. Numerical experiments validate the effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm. A case study based on the China-Europe route is conducted to derive optimal operational strategies under various climate policy scenarios. The results indicate that under the joint implementation of emission control areas (ECAs) and carbon taxes, the transshipment mode shifting from conventional fuel ships to dual-fuel vessels reduces carbon emissions by approximately 22% and boosts voyage profits by nearly 4%, compared to the current single-vessel direct routing mode. Furthermore, doubling the carbon tax rate makes the deployment of purely green-powered vessels more viable, achieving a carbon emission reduction of around 72%.These findings provide a scientific decision support for shipping companies in designing green transition strategies aligned with evolving climate policies.

Key words: waterway transportation, liner route design, stochastic programming, emission control area, carbon tax

中图分类号:

U695.2

张燕, 凌仕琪, 郑建风. 考虑多重气候政策和随机需求的绿色航线设计[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2026, 26(5): 112-121.

ZHANG Yan, LING Shiqi, ZHENG Jianfeng. Green Shipping Route Design Considering Multiple Climate Policies and Stochastic Demand[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2026, 26(5): 112-121.

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http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2026/V26/I5/112

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考虑多重气候政策和随机需求的绿色航线设计

Green Shipping Route Design Considering Multiple Climate Policies and Stochastic Demand

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