Multi-type Conflict Severity Model for Uncontrolled Pedestrian
Crosswalks

doi:10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2022.05.021

Abstract

Abstract: To reduce the multi-type conflict and improve the traffic safety at uncontrolled pedestrian crosswalks, this study proposes the traffic conflict index and regression analysis model to analyze the severity and influencing factors of the traffic conflict at the crosswalks. A conflict index (TTZ) is proposed in consideration of the influence of driver's visual field obstacle. The TTZ is combined with the conflict index of post intrusion time (PET) and the safety deceleration (DST) to quantify the severity of traffic conflict. By calculating the conflict index value, the fuzzy C-means clustering method is used to identify serious and non-serious conflicts. Taking the serious and non-serious conflicts as dependent variables, the study develops a multi-type traffic conflict severity prediction model based on binary Logit model. The results show that compared to single conflict, the severity of multi threat conflict is higher, in which 57.9% of multi threat conflicts are serious conflict, while 27.7% of single conflicts are serious conflict. Compared to pedestrian conflict, the severity of non-motorized vehicle conflict is higher, in which 45.7% of conflicts between nonmotorized vehicles and motorized vehicles are serious conflict, while 35.4% of conflicts between pedestrians and motor vehicles are serious conflict. For the influencing factor, the number of motor vehicles, waiting time for crossing the street, crossing speed, legal yield behavior of vehicles and other main factors have a significant impact on the severity of multi threat conflicts. For the severity of single conflicts, the number of motor vehicles, waiting time for crossing the street, crossing speed, yield behavior of vehicles in front and other main factors have a significant impact on the severity of the conflict.

Key words: urban traffic, conflict severity, Binary Logit model, uncontrolled pedestrian crosswalk, MCMC simulation; index analysis

摘要： 为减少无信控人行横道处多类型冲突及其带来的交通安全问题，本文采用交通冲突指标和回归分析模型研究交通冲突的严重程度和影响因素。提出考虑驾驶员视野障碍影响的冲突指标(TTZ)，结合后侵入时间(PET)和安全减速度(DST)冲突指标，量化交通冲突的严重程度；通过计算的冲突指标值，利用模糊C-均值聚类方法识别严重冲突和非严重冲突；将严重冲突和非严重冲突作为因变量，建立基于二元Logit模型的多类型交通冲突严重程度预测模型。结果表明，相较于单次冲突，多重威胁冲突的严重程度更高，其中，多重威胁冲突是严重冲突的占比为57.9%，单次冲突是严重冲突的占比为27.7%。相较于行人，非机动车的严重程度更高，其中，非机动车-机动车冲突是严重冲突的占比为45.7%，行人-机动车冲突是严重冲突的占比为35.4%。关于影响因素，机动车数量、过街等待时间、过街速度及侧面车辆合法屈服行为等因素对多重威胁冲突的严重程度具有显著影响；机动车数量、过街等待时间、过街速度及前方车辆屈服行为等因素对单次冲突的严重程度具有显著影响。

关键词: 城市交通, 冲突严重程度, 二元Logit模型, 无信控人行横道, MCMC仿真, 指标分析

CLC Number:

U121

CHANG Yu-lin, WU Zhao-yun, SUN Chao, ZHANG Peng. Multi-type Conflict Severity Model for Uncontrolled Pedestrian Crosswalks[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2022, 22(5): 205-214.

常玉林, 吴照允, 孙超, 张鹏. 无信控人行横道多类型冲突严重程度模型[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2022, 22(5): 205-214.

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URL: http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2022.05.021

http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/Y2022/V22/I5/205

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Multi-type Conflict Severity Model for Uncontrolled Pedestrian Crosswalks

无信控人行横道多类型冲突严重程度模型

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