Nested Logit Model of Elderly Travel Mode Choice Based on
Boundedly Rationality

doi:10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2023.06.008

Abstract

Abstract: To study the travel mode choice behavior of the elderly group and improve the travel mode convenience and accessibility for the elderly people, this paper proposes a travel mode choice model that meets the needs of the elderly group. Based on the traditional Logit model, the nested Logit model is used to improve the assumption of maximum traveler utility in the model. Taking the elderly travel group as the research object, the model is hypothesized based on the bounded rational satisfactory decision criterion, and the indifference threshold is introduced to establish the bounded rational nested Logit model that represents the elderly travel group. Then, taking the travel mode choice strategy data of the elderly group in Nanchang city as an example, the double-nested continuous average algorithm is used to solve and analyze the model. The results show that: (1) The elderly traveler group does not always choose the transportation mode with the lowest travel cost, and its mode choice behavior is affected by their degree of rationality and travel preferences. (2) The no-difference thresholds between nests of different travel modes interact with each other and gradually stabilize the mode choice probability between nests as the no- difference threshold increases; (3) The mode choice behavior of elderly travelers is affected by their rationality and preference, and when the travel cost differential is in one of the undifferentiated intervals of whether older people are able to make limited rational judgments, the probability of choosing public transportation changes with the propensity coefficient and stabilizes gradually as the propensity coefficient increases.

Key words: urban traffic, nested Logit, boundedly rationality, the elderly people, indifference threshold, travel mode choice

摘要： 为研究老年群体出行方式选择行为，提高老年人出行便捷性和可达性，本文提出一种符合老年群体的出行方式选择模型。在传统Logit模型基础上，选择巢式Logit模型，改进模型中对出行者效用最大化的假设。以老年出行群体为研究对象，基于有限理性满意决策准则对模型进行假设，引入无差异阈值，构建有限理性巢式Logit模型。最后，以南昌市老年群体出行方式选择策略数据为例，采用双嵌套连续平均算法求解分析模型。研究结果表明：老年出行群体并不总是会选择出行成本最低的交通方式，其方式选择行为受其理性程度与个人倾向的影响；不同出行方式各巢间无差异阈值会相互影响，且随着无差异阈值的增加，各巢间方式选择概率逐渐趋于稳定；老年人的方式选择行为受其理性程度和个人倾向的影响，当出行成本差处于老年人能否做出有限理性判断的某个无差异区间时，选择公共交通概率随倾向系数的变化而改变，且随着倾向系数的增加而逐渐稳定。

关键词: 城市交通, 巢式Logit, 有限理性, 老年人, 无差异阈值, 出行方式选择

CLC Number:

U121

ZHANG Bing, TAO Wen-kang, LIU Jian-rong, XUE Yun-qiang, DENG Ming-jun. Nested Logit Model of Elderly Travel Mode Choice Based on Boundedly Rationality[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2023, 23(6): 74-82.

张兵, 陶文康, 刘建荣, 薛运强, 邓明君. 有限理性视域下老年人出行方式选择巢式Logit模型[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2023, 23(6): 74-82.

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URL: http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2023.06.008

http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/Y2023/V23/I6/74

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Nested Logit Model of Elderly Travel Mode Choice Based on Boundedly Rationality

有限理性视域下老年人出行方式选择巢式Logit模型

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