Abstract: Based on grey model GM(1,1) and remnant difference correct model GM(1,1), road freight quantity and turnover quantity are forecasted. The showed information and latent information in a small amount of data can be developed and utilized fully, complicated correlativity is abstained, the discreteness of originality data is overcome, the high-precise predicted result is received. This paper takes the short-term forecast according to the roadfreight quantity and turnover quantity in shandong province and examines the forecasted result with the methods of posterior check.

Key words: grey model, road freight quantity, freight turnover quantity, forecast

摘要： 基于灰色系统GM(1,1)模型和残差修正GM(1,1)模型，预测道路货运量及货运周转量，可充分开发并利用了少量数据中的显信息和隐信息，避免复杂的相关关系，克服原始数据的离散性，得到高精度的预测结果.以山东省道路货运量及货运周转量为例进行了中短期预测，并用后验差方法对预测结果进行了检验。

关键词: 灰色系统, 道路货运量, 货运周转量, 预测