Abstract: With a great deal of real traffic data obtained from; Foshan City, this paper illustrates that motorcycle traffic problem has become one of the main reasons to restrict the traffic sustainable development. The vehicle composition in the future decade is predicted according to the current situation of the traffic infrastructure. Furthermore，the paper presents a three-step solution scenario. Firstly, enhance the motorcycle management and adopt a preliminary restriction strategy; Secondly, make out the reasonable urban traffic management planning and give priority to develop the public transportation; Thirdly, restrict the development of motorcycle ownership and clamp down on it eventually. Finally，the critical problems in each implementation step are also presented in this paper.

Key words: motorcycle traffic, forecasting, analysis

摘要： 以大量翔实的数据说明了摩托车交通问题是制约佛山市交通可持续发展的主要原因之一。结合佛山市交通基础设施及车辆组成的现状，根据对未来10年的车辆构成的预测，有针对性地提出了解决佛山市摩托车交通的三步走方案，即:第一步，加强摩托车管理，采取疏导与初步限制策略；第二步，合理城市与交通管理等规划，大力发展公共交通；第三步，在一定时期内大力限制摩托车增长，并最终取缔。文中还给出了每一步方案实施过程中的关键问题，并介绍了其中一些方法的实际应用情况。

关键词: 摩托车交通, 预测, 分析