Abstract: A traffic network with the following information structure is considered. The link travel times have probability distributions which are known from historical data. When the traveler arrives at a node, the actual travel times on the down streaming links are revealed to him. For given origin, destination, departure time and scheduled arrival time, the reliability of a routing strategy can be measured by the probability of arriving atd estination before scheduled time. In this paper an algorithm is provided for generating a route by taking into account both the historical statistical information and real time information. The route generated has maximum probability of arriving at the destination before the scheduled time, under the adopted information structure.

Key words: realtime information, historical information, routing algorithm, time reliability

摘要： 研究在具有过去的统计信息及实时信息条件下的交通网络上的路径生成问题
我们假定路段通行时间具有一定的概率分布，这一分布从过去的统计数据得到，而当旅行者到达某一节点时，以该节点为起点的路段的通行时间作为实时信息被告知。在以上条件下，我们给出一种自适应算法来实时地生成一条路经，使得在某一预定时刻以前到达目的地的概率最大这个概率是衡量路径的时间可靠性的尺度，因而我们称相应算法为reliable routing algorithm。与之对应，我们注意到在以往的研究中，衡量路径优劣的有平均通行时间长短等等尺度。

关键词: 实时信息, 统计信息, 路径生成, 时间可靠性