Abstract: The goal of Security early warning system is to offer the serve of safety control．Based on the current Railroad-enterprise information resouroes，and using modern management and theory of systems engineering，the system will realize warning for the safe of railway． The paper will introduce the background of designed system and the ideas of designed system in detailed．We will integrate daily control of the Railroad Bureau of TaiYuan and investigate the realization of security early warning system ．Based on the analytical theory of the trees of accidents，we investigate the realization of Security early Warning System of Railroad Bureau．

Key words: traffic an transportation, security early warning system, the trees of accidents, the emulator of system

摘要： 安全预警系统是向铁路企业安全监察部门提供辅助安全管理决策服务的管理信息系统。该系统依据现有铁路企业信息资源的基础，运用现代安全系统工程的理论和方法，对铁路安全监察部门所掌握的数据资料进行加工、处理，并分析预测铁路运输生产系统的安全状况与不利因素，从而在管理决策层次上实现铁路安全监察对铁路安全事故的超前预防与控制。笔者全面阐述了该系统的设计背景、设计思想，以及系统的信息平台和逻辑设计。结合太原铁路局实际运营系统，基于事故树分析理论，探讨了铁路安全预警系统的实现。

关键词: 交通运输, 预警系统, 事故树, 系统仿真