Airline Safety System Risk Assessment based on Evidence Theory

Abstract

Abstract: For solving the problem of uncertainty in airline safety system risk assessment,it brings evidence theory to the assessment.In the paper,the indicator system of airline safety system risk assessment is established. An arithmetic and a model base on evidence theory are also advanced.At last an example shows that the method is reasonable and efficient to the problem of uncertainty in airline safety system risk assessment.

Key words: evidence theory, uncertainty, airline, risk assessment

摘要： 针对航空公司安全系统风险评价中存在的不确定性因素，将证据理论引入航空公司安全系统的风险评价中，以解决评价过程中所遇到的不确定性问题，建立了航空公司安全系统风险评价指标体系，给出了基于证据理论的评价模型和算法，通过实例计算，验证了该方法能较好地解决航空公司安全系统风险评价过程中所遇到的不确定性问题。

关键词: 证据理论, 不确定性, 航空公司, 风险评价

Ding Songbin, Shi Rong, Shi Heping.

Airline Safety System Risk Assessment based on Evidence Theory

[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2007, 7(2): 77-82 .

丁松滨,石荣,施和平. 基于证据理论的航空公司安全系统风险评价[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2007, 7(2): 77-82 .

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URL: http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/abstract/abstract17504.shtml

http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/Y2007/V7/I2/77

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