Abstract: With the improvement of the intelligent transportation system and the expansion of UAV application scenarios, logistics UAVs came into being. Logistics drones are considered to an effective transportation means for the "last-mile" express delivery. However, falls caused by air collisions and self- failures may cause injuries to ground personnel and cause certain economic losses. This paper focuses on the logistics and transportation scenarios of drones, studies the number of deaths and economic losses caused by the falling of logistics drones, and uses the risk matrix to comprehensively evaluate the risks. The main contents include: analyzing the separation of aircraft and cargo after the collision of logistics drones in the air, modeling the number of deaths on the ground caused by logistics drones and cargo falling to the ground; classifying drones and cargo, and modeling economic losses, including direct economic losses caused by loss of drone and cargo value and costs by social service agencies indirect economic loss due to consumption; integrating the number of deaths and economic losses on the ground to establish a risk assessment matrix. The calculation example indicates that the number of deaths on the ground is between 3.74×10- 12 and 1.87×10- 7 per flight hour, which is in line with the equivalent safety level; the economic loss is between 6734.8 and 33619 yuan per accident, which is also within a reasonable range. The method provided in this paper can provide some reference and guiding significance for the ground risk assessment and control of logistics drones.

Key words: air transportation, risk assessment, risk matrix, logistics drone, fatality rate, economic loss

摘要： 随着智能交通运输体系的完善和无人机应用场景的拓展，物流无人机应运而生。物流无人机被认为是解决快递配送“最后一公里”问题的有效运输方式，但由空中碰撞、系统失效等原因导致的无人机坠落有可能对地面人员造成伤害并产生经济损失。因此本文聚焦无人机物流运输场景，研究物流无人机坠地后造成的死亡人数和经济损失，并利用风险矩阵综合评估风险。主要内容包括：分析物流无人机空中碰撞后产生机货分离的情况，建立由物流无人机和货物坠地造成 的地面死亡人数计算模型；对无人机和货物进行分类，建立经济损失计算模型，包括由无人机和货物价值损失构成的直接经济损失，以及由社会服务机构费用消耗构成的间接经济损失；综合物 流无人机和货物坠地造成的地面死亡人数和经济损失建立风险评估矩阵。算例证明，利用本文方法得到的地面死亡人数为每飞行小时3.74×10-12~1.87×10-7人，符合等效安全水平；每次事故经济损失为6734.8~33619.0元，也在合理区间内。本文提供的方法可以对物流无人机地面风险评估和管控提供一定借鉴和指导意义。

关键词: 航空运输, 风险评估, 风险矩阵, 物流无人机, 致死率, 经济损失