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A Methodological Study of Multimodal Freight Transportation Models
for Large Regions Based on an Integrated Modelling Framework
DENG Gui-hua , ZHONG Ming , RAZA Asif , HUNT John-douglas , ZHOU Yong
2022, 22(4):
30-42.
DOI: 10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2022.04.004
With an accelerated regional development and integration in China, an increasing number of regions have
begun to consider how to coordinate the development of economy, land/space, transportation, and environment
toward a sustainable development through an integrated modeling/planning process. With this, this study proposes
a methodology for designing and developing a large-scale, integrated, multi-commodity, multimodal freight
transportation model, through systematically considering various interactions between economy, land/space,
transportation, and environment of a region. First, the structure of the model is developed by creating an Aggregate
Economic Flows (AEFs) table embedded in the PECAS (Production, Exchange and Consumption Allocation System)modeling framework primarily based on the majority of types of goods transported by the three modes (waterway,
railway and highway) and corresponding producing industries or sectors, with a target to provide a full economic
representation for regional freight demand analysis. With such a representation, the producers, consumers, exchanged
commodities, the categories of land and space and the transportation modes are fully represented and their interactive
relationships are quantitatively represented. Next, the four individual modules of the model are developed, including a
Economic and Demographic (ED) module, an Activity Allocation (AA) module, a Space Development (SD) module,
and a multimodal Transportation Systems (TS) module, which predicts and simulates the total of socio-economic
activities (by sector), allocates the total activites into different land use zones (LUZs) or traffic analysis zones (TAZs),
simulates land/space development over the zones and estimates corresponding freight demand to be transportated
between those zones over a multimodal supernetwork (consisting of the above three networks and connecting/transfer
links), respectively. Given the constraints based on the socio-economic development target, land/space available, level
of supply of transportation infrastructure and environmental capacity in the regional development, the designed
modeling approach can achieve a much more objective simulation of temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of
socioeconomic activites, the interactions between them, the corresponding freight demand and multi-commodity flows
over the multimodal transportation network, which may provide a good decision support capacity for an integrated
planning of regional allocation of socioeconomic activities, and a land use and transportation system with a high level
of service. The proposed modelling method is applied to the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) and an integrated,
multi-commodity, multimodal freight transportation model of the region is developed as a case study. The activity
totals, land use/space patterns and corresponding freight demand and multimodal transportation systems are modelled
from the year 2015 to 2035. The modeling results clearly show that the goodness of fit of the predicted annual average
daily tonnage is higher than 85%, and the errors of mode share between predicted and observed values are less than
1%, which proves that the proposed modeling method is accurate and practical for policy analysis at regional scale.
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