Abstract: As an important part of transportation, the civil aviation industry is of great significance to the implementation of the national carbon peak and carbon neutral policy. In this study, a comprehensive prediction model of carbon emission and air pollutant emission is constructed to fit the characteristics of civil aviation, and the growth of civil aviation aircraft and CO2 and NOx emissions in 2019-2050 is predicted. The synergistic control coordinate system and synergistic emission elasticity coefficient are used to evaluate the synergistic benefits of emission reduction. The research shows that the future annual increment of civil aviation aircraft will show a trend of continuous growth, which is closely related to the development of GDP, potential output, and labor efficiency. The improvement of fuel efficiency cannot change the current situation of the continuous growth of CO2 and NOx emissions in civil aviation. The development of sustainable aviation fuel will make the CO2 emission of civil aviation peak at 3.18×108 tons in 2045 and promote the continuous growth of NOx emission. This effect can be eliminated through technological advancement and the introduction of new power aircraft, and the peak time of CO2 emission in civil aviation will be advanced to 2040, in which the emission can be reduced to 2.65×108 tons. On this basis, accelerating the application of sustainableaviation fuel can make civil aviation CO2 emissions peak at 2.47×108 tons in 2037. Civil aviation cannot achieve a carbon peak in 2030. The proper introduction of sustainable aviation fuel, the acceleration of civil aviation technology improvement, and the application of new power aircraft are the best choices to strengthen the coordinated emission reduction of CO2 and NOx in civil aviation. Finally, some suggestions are provided that, the best way for the civil aviation industry to achieve dual carbon is to focus on improving aircraft fuel economy in the short term, accelerating the application of sustainable aviation fuel in the medium term, and realizing zero-carbon flight by relying on new powered aircraft in the long term.

Key words: air transportation, synergistic benefit, scenario analysis, CO₂, NO_x

摘要： 民用航空作为交通运输的重要组成部分，对落实国家碳达峰和碳中和战略具有重大意义。本文构建了一套符合民航特征的大气污染物与CO2排放综合预测模型，针对民航飞机未来增 长情况和2019—2050年民航CO2和NOx排放量开展预测分析，并利用协同控制坐标系和协同减 排弹性系数评价产生的减排协同效益。结果表明，未来民航飞机年增量呈现出不断增长的趋势， 与GDP、潜在产出及劳动效率的发展关联密切。燃油效率的提高并不能改变民航CO2和NOx排放量持续增长的现状，可持续航空燃料的发展使民航CO2排放量于2045年达峰，约为3.18×108 t，并会促进NOx排放量持续增长。通过技术改进与新动力飞机的进入可消除此影响，使民航CO2排放量达峰时间提前到2040年，排放量约为2.65×108 t，在此基础上，推进可持续航空燃料的应用可使民航CO2排放量在2037年达峰，约为2.47×108 t，可见民航业无法实现2030碳达峰愿景，且研究表明，适当引进可持续航空燃料，加快对民航技术的改进和新动力飞机的应用是强化民航CO2与 NOx协同减排的最佳选择。因此短期内着力提高飞机燃油经济性；中期加速推进可持续航空燃料 的应用比例；长期依靠新型动力飞机实现零碳飞行，是民航业实现双碳的最佳路径。

关键词: 航空运输, 协同效益, 情景分析, CO₂, NO_x