Abstract: To properly reflect the interdependency mechanisms between travel behavior, transport networks, and distributions of population, employments, and so on, this study attempts to first establish a new feedback travel demand model and then improve it into an integrated model. With different models estimated based on the same comparatively inadequate and poor quality trip survey data for a developing city, it is confirmed that compared with the sequentially estimated conventional four-step model, the estimation accuracies of both of the proposed models have been steadily improved. For this study, Jabodetabek of Indonesia, one of the representative developing mega-cities, has been selected as the study area. According to the estimation results of the proposed integrated model, some urban and transport development policies are evaluated from the perspective of realizing an environmentally sustainable city. It is found that as the households increase are controlled, new roads were constructed and public transport systems improved, and polycenter development will be a sustainable urban form for the growth of Jabodetabek in the future.

Key words: feedback, sustainability, developing city, travel demand model

摘要： 为了准确地反映城市交通网络布局、人口分布和职业分布等因素与交通行为之间的相互影响机制，同时考虑到发展中城市交通调查数据的完整性和准确性相对较差，首先建立了一种新的交通需求反馈模型，并对其进行改进，进而形成了一种新型集成模型。通过基于同一套发展中城市交通调查数据对不同模型进行参数标定以及对标定结果进行比较分析，本文得出结论：与被广泛应用的传统四阶段模型相比较，新的反馈和集成模型的标定结果的准确性有了明显提高。随后，根据新型集成模型的标定结果，本文又以富有代表性的发展中城市区域，即印度尼西亚的雅加达首都城市圈作为研究对象，对该区域将来的城市和交通可持续发展政策进行了探究。研究结果表明：随着对城市人口增长的控制、城市道路的建设、公共交通设施的不断完善，多副都心发展模式将成为该地区未来可持续发展的城市形态。

关键词: 反馈, 可持续性, 发展中城市, 交通需求