Abstract: Because of the construction of intercity railway in economically developed regions of China, the competition in passenger transport market become more intense. The results of competition rely on the strategies used by operators. Based on discrete choice theory, mode split of intercity travel is proposed using Nested Logit model. The relationship between passenger flow and ticket price is analyzed, and the profit function is developed. A static price game model of complete information is presented. The existence and computing method of the Nash equilibrium price solutions are also proposed. The numerical results indicate that the proposed Nested Logit based model and Logit based model give different equilibrium solutions, and the Logit based model leads to excessive profits of public transit operators. This study is useful for the configuration of intercity transportation system.

Key words: transportation economy, intercity railway, bus, Nested Logit model, static game of complete information

摘要： 城际铁路的规划建设，加剧了经济发达地区城际客运交通市场的竞争，而竞争的成败很大程度上取决于运营者是否能够采用吸引乘客的策略.本研究基于离散选择理论，使用Nested Logit模型分析出行者的城际交通方式选择行为，确定不同交通方式客运量与运输价格的关系，建立各交通方式的运营利润模型.并以运营票价为竞争策略变量，建立城际铁路和公路长途巴士运输的完全信息静态博弈模型，给出了纯策略和混合策略Nash均衡解的存在性和计算方法.案例计算表明，传统的Logit模型与本研究的Nested Logit模型给出不同的均衡价格，且Logit模型会过高估计公共运输企业的利润.本研究对于合理配置城际综合交通方式具有参考价值.

关键词: 交通运输经济, 城际铁路, 长途巴士, Nested Logit模型, 完全信息静态博弈