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Co-integration Analysis of Freight Volume, Fuel Oil Price and GDP
LU Yi, PENG Wei,WANG Li-zhi
2010, 10(1):
28-32 .
In this paper, the dynamic discipline is studied among freight volume, fuel oil price, and the national economy to explore their stabilities, balanced status, long-term relationships, as well as the development of road transport industry. The actual data from 1978 to 2007 are processed with the software of Economic Views. The co-integration analysis, unit root test, Granger causality, and Johansen test are conducted, which develops the error correction model and seeks short-term dynamic fluctuation and long-term equilibrium relationship among them. The results show that: first, the co-integration relationship is existed among them, namely, they have formed a stable, balanced, and long-term relationship; second, the road freight volume cause GDP in Granger causality test, the change of road freight leads to a similar change of the national economy, and fuel oil price and freight volume takes change in the reverse direction.
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