Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of travel time variability on drivers’ route choice behavior. A stated preference survey is conducted to collect drivers’ hypothetical choice data between two alternative routes with designated unequal travel time and travel time variability. A binary choice model is developed to quantify trade-offs between travel time and travel time variability across various types of drivers. In the model, travel time and travel time variability are respectively measured by expectation and standard deviation of random travel time. The model shows that travel time and travel time variability on a route exert similarly negative effects on drivers’ route choice behavior. In particular, it is found that middle-age drivers are more sensitive to travel time variability and less likely to choose a route with travel time uncertainty than younger and elder drivers. In addition, it is shown that taxi drivers are more sensitive to travel time and more inclined to choose a route with less travel time. Drivers with rich driving experience are less likely to choose a route with uncertain travel time.

Key words: urban traffic, travel time variability, route choice, discrete choice analysis, stated preference survey, binary Probit model

摘要： 探索了行程时间波动性对驾驶员路径选择行为的影响. 研究采用意向调查获取驾驶员从两条行程时间和行程时间波动性不同的路径中选择路径的行为数据，采用离散选择建模方法建立估计路径选择概率的二元Probit模型，揭示驾驶员对行程时间和行程时间波动性进行权衡的行为机理. 行程时间和行程时间波动性分别用期望行程时间、行程时间标准偏差来度量. 研究发现：(1) 路径的行程时间和行程时间波动性都会对路径选择产生负面影响. (2) 中等年龄段驾驶员，较之比他们年轻的和年长的，对行程时间波动性越看重，对行程时间波动更敏感，选择行程时间不确定的路径的概率更小. (3) 出租车驾驶员对行程时间更敏感，选择行程时间更短的路径的倾向性更大. (4) 驾驶经验丰富的驾驶员选择行程时间不确定的路径的可能性更小.

关键词: 城市交通, 行程时间波动性, 路径选择, 离散选择分析, 意向调查, 二元Probit模型