Abstract: Time-varying origin-destination (OD) demands are the essential element in the modeling and evaluation of urban traffic planning and traffic management and control strategies. However, most of existing methodologies in estimating time-varying origin-destination (OD) demands are not able to be applied for real-world networks. This paper intends to develop a practical approach to estimate time-varying OD demands incorporating both floating car data (FCD) and remote traffic microwave sensors (RTMS) data. The paper proposes a framework of the methodology which includes two stages. The first stage is to estimate the controlling static OD demands based on RTMS data for the entire modeling period to ensure that the total modeled demands match the total observed demands. The second stage is to modify the controlling static OD demands to ultimately obtain the time-varying OD demands using the resulting time-varying splitting rates by a combined application of FCD and RTMS data. The paper applies the proposed methodology to derive the time-varying OD demands for the Western 3rd Ring-Road corridor network in Beijing, which is shown to be accurate and practical.

Key words: urban traffic, time-varying OD demand estimation, time-varying splitting rates, controlling static OD demands estimation, floating car data (FCD), remote traffic microwave sensors (RTMS) data

摘要： 动态OD需求是城市交通规划、交通管理控制措施制定及评估工作的数据基础，然而现有多数动态OD估计模型存在着难以应用于真实路网OD估计的问题. 针对于此，本文提出了一种基于浮动车和RTMS数据的动态OD估计模型，该模型具有操作性和实用性强的特点. 模型的实现经历了两个阶段：第一阶段是利用RTMS数据进行静态OD反推，获得与现实OD需求相匹配的静态控制OD需求；第二阶段是基于浮动车数据和RTMS数据计算得到每个OD对的时变拆分比例，并用该比例拆分静态控制OD获得动态OD需求. 最后以北京西三环交通走廊为研究对象，开展了动态OD需求估计实例分析工作，从而验证模型的准确性和实用性.

关键词: 城市交通, 动态OD需求估计, 时变拆分比例, 静态控制OD需求估计, 浮动车数据, RTMS数据