Abstract:

To scientifically evaluate the impact of motorcycle forbidden policy on resident travel time cost, this paper takes Guangzhou as a case for research. The Guangzhou resident travel characteristics and parameters are analyzed through the traffic survey data of Guangzhou. Then the methods of willing investigation and historical trend analysis are used to determine the inhabitant mode share in two hypothetical cases:wtether the motorcycle forbidden policy is implemented or not. The comparative analysis model is developed considering several factors such as traveling purpose, traveling time, resident income and other factors. The results shows that the motorcycle forbidden policy will increases the overall resident travel time cost by 3.01%, among which, the cost of restricted groups increases by 53.47%.

Key words: urban traffic, motorcycle forbidden policy, comparative analysis, traveling time cost, resident travel

摘要：

为科学评价“禁摩”对居民出行时间成本的影响，本文以广州市为例进行研究.通过结合广州市历次交通调查数据，分析了广州居民出行的特征及有关参数，并利用意愿调查和历史趋势法确定了实施“禁摩”与不实施“禁摩”两种情形下“禁摩”范围内居民出行方式的构成比例；在综合考虑出行目的、出行时间及收入情况等因素后，构建了“禁摩”对居民出行时间成本的对比分析模型.研究结果表明，“禁摩”政策会增加居民出行时间成本，其中总体成本增加3.01%，被限制的群体成本增加53.47%.

关键词: 城市交通；&ldquo, 禁摩&rdquo, 政策；对比分析；出行时间成本；居民出行