A Quantitative Analysis of Carbon Emissions Reduction Ability of Transportation Structure Optimization in China

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to develop a lowcarbon emissions transportation system, it is important to study the carbon emissions reduction ability of transportation structure optimization. Based on analysis of the impact of transportation structure on carbon emissions, this paper employed a quantitative approach and time series data (1989-2009) to analyze the effect of transportation structure on carbon emissions in China. In this study, a quantitative approach of the decomposition analysis and the impulse response function were combined. Measurements of the quantity change in carbon emissions caused by the transportation structure factor were obtained along with the responses of the carbon emissions to the impulse of the transportation structure optimization. The relationship between transportation structure and carbon emissions was discussed based on empirical results, including: (1) shortand longterm influence of transportation structure on carbon emissions; (2) comparative analysis of transportation structure and other principal factors; (3) the dynamic interaction mechanism between transportation structure and carbon emissions. The outcome of this study proved to be valuable for researchers and decision makers in this field.

Key words: integrated transportation, carbon emission reduction, decomposition analysis, impulse response function, structure optimization

摘要：

为促进我国低碳交通运输体系建设，研究交通运输结构优化的碳减排有效性.在分析交通运输结构对其碳排放影响机制的基础上，基于1989-2009年数据，结合静态因素分解与动态冲击响应技术，量化研究20年来我国交通运输结构变化对碳排放的影响，以及结构优化冲击下，交通运输碳排放和结构优化自身的响应方向、程度与持续期数.根据实证结果，分别讨论了结构因素对交通运输碳排放的短期和长期影响，结构因素与其他交通运输碳排放主要影响因素的差异，以及结构因素与交通运输碳排放两者间的动态互动机理，为相关研究和政策制定提供实证参考.

关键词: 综合交通运输, 碳减排, 因素分解, 冲击响应, 结构优化

CLC Number:

U116

WEI Qing-qi, ZHAO Song-zheng, XIAO Wei. A Quantitative Analysis of Carbon Emissions Reduction Ability of Transportation Structure Optimization in China[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2013, 13(3): 10-17.

魏庆琦，赵嵩正，肖伟. 我国交通运输结构优化的碳减排能力研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2013, 13(3): 10-17.

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URL: http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/abstract/abstract18576.shtml

http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/Y2013/V13/I3/10

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