Abstract:

Urban road network is a complex system. Subway station construction needs a long time, which has significant impacts on the urban traffic organization. On the basis of the two-phase and four-stage urban road network system reliability analysis, this paper clarifies the impacts on the road network system reliability during the subway station construction. An idea about how to quantitatively calculate the impacts is proposed. And Monte Carlo- based algorithms are constructed to study the system reliability and component probabilistic importance. The component probabilistic importance is used to imply probabilistic contribution of improving component (either roadway segment or intersection) reliability to that of system reliability, which can further suggest the bottlenecks in the road network during the subway station construction and provide references for traffic management and organization. Finally, some stations construction on the Zhengzhou No.2Subway Line is taken as example to testify the feasibility of the proposed method.

Key words: urban traffic, traffic impacts analysis, system reliability, subway station construction, road network

摘要：

城市道路网络是一个复杂系统，地铁站点施工工期长，且对城市道路交通组织 有重要影响.本文在两相四阶段城市道路网络系统可靠度分析的基础上，界定地铁站点施 工对城市道路网络系统可靠度的影响，提出了基于系统可靠度的地铁站点施工期间交通 影响分析的思路,并构建了基于蒙特卡罗的城市道路网络系统可靠度和单元概率重要度 算法.单元概率重要度可用于进行道路单元（路段和交叉口单元）对路网系统完成其预定 功能的概率影响分析，从而发现地铁站点施工期间路网中的瓶颈路段，为交通组织和方 案的制定提供参考依据.最后以郑州市地铁2号线部分站点施工的交通影响分析为例，验 证了所提出方法的可行性和适用性.

关键词: 城市交通, 交通影响分析, 系统可靠度, 地铁站点施工, 道路网络