Abstract: Based on an investigation of the process of freight transport in China railway, this paper analyzes the change laws of forwarding times of freights. By applying the regression analysis methods and the estimation theory of reliability, we have obtained regression equations of forwarding times, and a method of forecasting transit time is put forward according to the equation. The conclusion of this paper are the base of defining rationally the forwarding time.

Key words: railway, freight transport, forwarding time, regression analysis

摘要： 货物送达时间是评价运输方式竞争力的一个重要指标，科学地估计货物送达时间是指定运输组织方案和指定运输合同的依据。通过对铁路四个有代表性货运站的货物送达时间的抽样调查，运用数理统计理论对非直达运输货物的送达时间变化规律进行了研究；通过回归分析的方法得到了整车和集装箱货物货物送达时间的回归方程；并相应地提出了货物送达时间的的预测方法。研究结论为预报铁路货物送达时间提供了一个科学的依据。

关键词: 铁路, 货物运输, 送达时间, 回归分析