Abstract: Based on the space-time characteristics of arrival passenger mustering and evacuation in large scale railway station, the paper presents the simulation conceptual model on evacuation process of arrival passengers. The microscopic traffic behavior simulation model is developed by improving the classic social force model, and the passenger size and expected speed parameters of the model are analyzed and calculated. Through the simulation experiment in Dalian railway station, the time plots of passenger number in underpass and south exit are drawn, and the indexes of the 95% confidence interval of maximum passenger mustering, the peak time and the 95% confidence interval of arrival passenger transfer time are obtained. The band region and point region of potential safety hazard in railway station are also examined. The simulation results show that the model is reliable and practical.

Key words: railway transportation, transfer time, microscopic simulation, passenger evacuation, traffic characteristic, social force model

摘要： 对铁路客运站客流到达、疏散的时空特性进行分析，提出了大型铁路客运站到达旅客疏散仿真概念模型. 从车站到达旅客交通特性出发，在经典社会力模型基础上对旅客站内交通行为进行微观仿真建模，并对模型的行人尺寸和期望速度参数进行了分析和标定. 通过对沈阳铁路局大连站到达旅客疏散仿真实验，得到该站地下通道和南出站口处旅客人数随时间变化的曲线、旅客最高聚集人数95%置信区间和高峰出现的时间，到站旅客换乘时间95%置信区间，找出了存在安全隐患的带状区域和点状区域. 仿真结果表明，模型具有较高的可靠性和实用性.

关键词: 铁路运输, 换乘时间, 微观仿真, 旅客疏散, 交通特性, 社会力模型