Abstract:

Under the background of regulation failure, this paper considers the expectations of the railway transportation marketization after the super ministry reform in China. It establishes a multidimensional different dynamical system that conforms to the characteristics of railway transportation market under the problem of discrete time. This model can be regarded as an extension to and 's. It solves the condition of eigenvalue as multiple root and coefficient matrix unable to diagonalize using recursive principle and transformation. To discuss the policies that government could change impact on the variable such as freight, freight volumes after reform utilizes comparative static analysis. Through example analyzing, this paper presents that investment subsidies are more sensitive to the initial impact on traffic volume which is positively related to it than initial impact on the fare levels which has negative correlation with it. Meanwhile, with the time of policy changes increases, the influence of traffic volume and fare levels will be weakened and tend to0.0058and -0.0041, respectively.

Key words: transportation economy, policy change, differential dynamic equation, regulatory failure, welfare analysis

摘要：

在充分了解管制失灵的背景下，鉴于对大部制改革后铁路运输市场化的预期， 基于Meijdam和Verhoeven的福利分析方法，构建一个离散时间问题下符合铁路运输市 场特性的高维微分动力系统，将系统线性化.在模型的求解中，采用递归原理及Z-变换 解决Meijdam和Verhoeven方法不能适用于系统特征根为重根，系数矩阵不能对角化的 变量求解问题.针对改革后预期政府政策改变对运价、运量等变量因素引发的经济影响进 行比较静态分析.通过算例分析，发现投资补贴与运量的初始变化呈现正相关，与票价水 平的初始变化则呈现负相关，且对后者的变化具有更高的敏感性.同时，随着政策改变时 长的增加，对两者的影响力将同时减弱并分别收敛于0.0058和-0.0041.

关键词: 交通运输经济, 政策改变, 微分动力方程, 管制失灵, 福利分析