Abstract:

The low-carbon transportation is the inevitable direction of the urban traffic in cities of China. In order to analyze the impact of travelers’environmental awareness on low- carbon transportation, based on travelers’ attitude and behaviors towards environment, this paper constructs travelers’environmental awareness with the Rasch model. Then travelers’environmental awareness is introduced into the traditional multivariate Probit model as explanatory independent variables. And the impact of travelers’environmental awareness on the approval of private car restriction policies and the purchase intention of pure electric vehicles are analyzed. The result shows that there is a higher degree of fitting when incorporating travelers’environmental awareness into the multivariate probit model. The average marginal effect of environmental consciousness on the approval of changing the motorway to a bus lane, and the approval of car-limit policy (such as increasing the fuel tax and the parking fee) are 0.127 and 0.144, respectively. The average marginal effect of environmental consciousness on the purchase intention of the pure electric car right now and in the future when the infrastructure is perfect, are 0.133 and 0.116, respectively. The purchase intention of the pure electric car in the future when the infrastructure is perfect is 0.182 higher than that right now.

Key words: urban traffic, environmental awareness, multivariate Probit model, low-carbon travel behavior, latent variable, Rasch model

摘要：

低碳交通是城市交通发展的必然选择.为定量分析出行者环保意识对低碳出行选择行为的影响，本文基于出行者环保行为和环保态度，利用Rasch模型，构建了出行者潜在的环保意识.将出行者潜在的环保意识作为解释变量带入多变量Probit模型中，分析出行者环保意识对私家车限制政策赞同度和购买纯电动车意愿的影响.研究结果表明：在出行者低碳出行行为中，带入出行者环保意识能够提高模型的拟合度；环保意识对多设公交专用道、通过提高燃油税和停车费等减少市中心小汽车量的赞同度的平均边际效用为0.127、0.144；环保意识对现阶段、未来基础设施完善时购买纯电动汽车意愿的平均边际效用为0.133、0.116；未来购买纯电动汽车意愿比现阶段购买纯电动汽车意愿高0.182.

关键词: 城市交通, 环保意识, 多变量Probit模型, 低碳出行行为, 潜变量, Rasch模型