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    25 August 2015, Volume 15 Issue 4 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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    Towards New Heights of Traffic:to Commemorate the 60th Anniversary of Tsien Hsueshen Homecoming
    ZHANG Guo-wu
    2015, 15(4): 1-9. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1254KB) ( )  

    As the basic and strategic industry, traffic plays an important role in the national development strategy. With mobile internet, cloud computing, large data, internet of thing and other advanced technology, the internet and transportation to carry out effective permeation and fusion, form the new formats and new models: on-line resources can be reasonably allocated, and off-line can be high efficiently and high quality operated. Meet the needs of public that more convenient travel, more human nature services, and the industry more scientific decision. The 39th conference of“Traffic and Transportation 7+1 Forum”sets its theme as “Towards New Heights of Traffic——to Commemorate the 60th Anniversary of Tsien Hsueshen Homecoming”. It aims at applying the systematic thinking and overall thought which are advocated by Tsien Hsueshen to provide new thinking and theoretical guidance for the development of internet and traffic. It promotes transportation industry from the traditional to the modern service industry transformation and upgrading, the traffic development towards new heights.

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    Dynamic Linkages among Transportation, Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions in China: Empirical Research on the Data from 1949 to 2012
    WU Ji-gui, YE A-zhong
    2015, 15(4): 10-17. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2324KB) ( )  

    Appling VAR model with the time- series data during 1949 to 2012 period, this paper explores the dynamic relationship between transportation industry, economic growth and carbon emissions. The research results show that: Between the contribution of economic growth and transportation industry to carbon emissions, there is an“inflection point”effect , which indicates that the impacts of both economic growth and transportation industry on carbon emissions strengthen in the short term, while in the long-term scale, the impacts moderate progressively; The impacts of carbon emissions on economic growth are significant in the short term, however, in the long run the impacts decrease progressively, in the sample interval, the response of economic growth is faint under the shock from transportation industry; Both economic growth and carbon emissions can stimulate the development of transportation industry positively in varying degrees.

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    Travel Mode Decision Behavior under Regret View for Emergency Evacuation
    AN Shi,WANG Ze,WANG Jian,CUI Jian-xun
    2015, 15(4): 18-23. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1321KB) ( )  

    Due to evacuee's regret aversion psychology from travel decisions during emergency evacuation, random regret minimization and random utility maximization models are formulated based on multinomial Logit model, respectively. Take governmental bus, private car and shared car as evacuation modes, the aim is to analyze the influence of attribute variables on mode choice, including the average travel time, travel time uncertainty, waiting time and perceived service level. According to evacuation behavior stated preference data, the results indicate that the model fit of the regret model is better than that of utility approach. The attribute description from the regret model is more reasonable. Moreover, elasticity and sensitivity analysis are made to reveal the influence of average travel time. It is found that evacuees with regret aversion would try to minimize the regret perception, rather than to maximize expected utility. It seems more accurate that evacuation decision can be depicted from random regret view.

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    Evolutionary Game Analysis of Engendering Mechanism for Pirate Attacks
    ZHU Le-qun, LV Jing, LI Jing
    2015, 15(4): 24-30. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1793KB) ( )  

    In order to analyse the decision-making progress of pirates and to predict the possibility of pirate attacks, this paper creates an asymmetry evolutionary game model from the viewpoints of both pirates and navies’decision behaviour. Using evolutionary game theory, this model describes the decision-making progress of pirates under naval escort. Then the replicator dynamics equations of pirate attack strategy and navy escort strategy are developed. Through discussing the parameters’values of the replicator equations, different game situations are established and evolutionary process and evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) under different situations are analysed. Finally, the recent data of Somali pirates are taken as an example simulation and the simulation result accords with reality. The results of theory analysis and example simulation show that decision-making of pirate attacks is mainly influenced by attack revenue and success rate and naval escort make pirates more willing to choose not attack strategy.

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    Spatial Correlation and Convergence between Highway and Economic Development in China
    YU Jiang-xia,HAI Meng,HAN Shao-hua
    2015, 15(4): 31-37. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1527KB) ( )  

    The spatial econometrics theory and method is applied to analysis the spatial difference and correlation between highway and economic development in China. The conclusions are that, there is obvious spatial correlation and convergence between highway and economic development in China. The significance of it becomes more and more strength and has a striking spatial aggregation. The aggregation degree of eastern coastal area and central area of the Yangtze River is much higher than the West of China, and has significant difference between them. Highway traffic infrastructure do not have sigma convergence and absolute beta convergence. But when applies in control variable, it has significant conditional beta convergence. Highway traffic infrastructure and the regional economy development have highly significant positive spatial correlation. And the significant high place mainly in Sichuan, Yunnan and Guizhou. The regional economic development has no sigma convergence and absolute beta convergence, but has obvious conditional beta convergence. It illustrates that the development of highway transportation infrastructure can promote the regional economic development.

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    Extraction Methods for Regional Passenger Transportation Spatial Linkage Feature: the Case of Yunnan Province
    JI Xiao-feng, OU Si-jia
    2015, 15(4): 38-44. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1955KB) ( )  

    Extraction features of passenger transportation spatial linkage could provide basic data for regional traffic planning and passenger organization. In order to extract the spatial linkage features of passenger transportation effectively, the average mileage of passenger transportation which is an important transport feature indicator is introduced in this paper, by recalibrating the quality factors, and the conventional gravity model is also improved to establish the extraction method. Then the expressway passenger traffic data is used to match with the features in this paper, and Yunnan province is taken as an example. The results show that the spatial differentiation characteristics are significant in transport linkage in Yunnan, which is consistent with the economic relationship of the "center-hinterland", and with Kunming is the core city, regional spatial transport linkage has obvious structural intensity; the attraction intensity of passenger transportation is stronger in the central region of Yunnan province, while attraction intensity is weaken in western Yunnan; bus traffic flow data in Yunnan province is also in consistent with the spatial linkage features got above.

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    Integrated Optimization of the Maximum Amount of Railway Freight Transportation and Flow Distribution
    CHEN Lei, LIN Bo-liang,WANG Long, WEN Xu-hong, LI Jian
    2015, 15(4): 45-50. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1264KB) ( )  

    Under the background of high speed railway network preliminary formation and the transportation capacity of existing railway lines are released in some level, this paper studies the integrated optimization of the maximum amount of railway freight transportation and flow distribution. In this paper, the growth of railway freight transportation demand is used to describe the maximum amount of railway freight transportation and a multi-objective model is built based on the characteristics of railway transportation organization. The objective contains the maximum amount of freight transportation and minimum flow distribution costs after the growth of transport demand. The upper limits of growth rate for each transportation demand, the tree-type feature of transportation routing and non repeated path constraint are considered in the model. Finally, a numerical case is designed to test the two models, one the model is built in this paper and the other is the model in existing research literature. The maximum amount of freight transportation and the flow distribution scheme are obtained respectively. The validity and feasibility of the proposed model are verified by comparing the computational results.

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    A Short Term Traffic Flow Prediction Method Based on Gaussian Processes Regression
    KANG Jun,DUAN Zong-tao,TANG Lei,LIU Yan,WANG Chao
    2015, 15(4): 51-56. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1521KB) ( )  

    The previous methods about short term traffic flow prediction have been all belong to the deterministic prediction, and cannot be used for the quantitative analysis of the uncertainty of the prediction. Aiming at above problem, a short term traffic flow prediction method based on Gaussian processes regression is presented. Using the proposed method, the short term traffic flow predicting and estimate of variance can be obtained simultaneously, and the 95% confidence interval about this prediction is further calculated. Under the same condition, two simulation tests are realized for the proposed method and the support vector machine prediction method respectively. The test results indicate that the prediction accuracy of the proposed method is similar to the support vector machine prediction method, the root mean square error is about 12.09, the absolute value of error is about 118.42, and the relative error is about 17.32%. Furthermore, using the proposed method, the estimate of prediction variance can be achieved, by which the probabilistic prediction of the short-term traffic flow is implemented effectively.

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    Design of Reversible Lanes with Tidal Flow on Road Network
    SHI Feng, SU Huan-yin,WANG Xiong
    2015, 15(4): 57-62. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1377KB) ( )  

    The traffic flow in city features tidal characteristic, which results in unbalanced utilization of twoway traffic capacity of road. The asymmetry of traffic demand results in the asymmetry of heavy- traffic roads on road network at the peak and evening. From the point of urban traffic network, an optimization method to design reversible lanes synthetically at the peak and evening is proposed. A two secondary bi-level programming model is constructed, which is based on the theory of traffic equilibrium and aimed at reducing the whole travel cost of urban traffic network at rush hours and decreasing the management cost of reversible lanes. The upper is an optimization decision scheme of reversible lanes and the underlying is two traffic assignment models for the peak and evening based on the upper decision scheme. The genetic algorithm is designed for the model. The correctness of the whole model and the validity of the algorithm get demonstrated by Sioux Falls network in this paper. The results show that designing reversible lanes synthetically can reduce the total cost of urban traffic network, comparing with no reversible lanes scheme and designing reversible lanes respectively scheme.

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    Traffic Real-time Network States Estimation of Expressway Based on Toll Data
    LI Shu-bin, DANGWen-xiu, FU Bai-bai
    2015, 15(4): 63-69. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2048KB) ( )  

    With the accelerated pace of expressway construction, a series of derivative issues such as traffic safety, traffic congestion and environmental pollution also have been triggered. To acquire the real-time state of expressway network is one of the methods that can reduce congestion delays and can ensure the fast and smooth of the expressway. However, the obtaining data method is relatively simple, so the expressway network state estimation aspect still lack of scientific guidance. In this paper, the pay data of toll stations are explored, the all network state estimates can be generated by loaded dynamic OD using simulation method based on the improved traffic simulation model. The real expressway network of Shandong province is used in an example. The results show that this method can be more accurate estimate, the real-time network states, traffic flow speed, density, flow and other information can be acquired in any segment of the network, which can help expressway management department to release induced information dynamically and also can help planning detector settings.

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    Pedestrian Detection Method Based on Head Color Space and Outline Information
    GAO Chun-xia, DONG Bao-tian,WANG Ai-li
    2015, 15(4): 70-77. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1928KB) ( )  

    An approach of pedestrian detection based on the head color space and outline information is proposed to meet the requirement of reducing people counting time in real- time video monitoring. A head color model is established according to head feature in YCbCr and RGB color space,which obtain head candidate areas. Multi-frame difference method is adopted to eliminate background noise and correct candidate regions based on the characteristic of pedestrian movement. The outlines of candidate regions are extracted based on improved Canny operator and morphology. Fade candidate regions are removed according to the geometrical characteristics of head contours, the connected components are marked to detect pedestrian information. Experimental results show that this algorithm is fast and effective, which could meet the real- time needs of intelligent video surveillance, the better pedestrian detection results are achieved in dynamic traffic scene.

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    Boarding Stop Inference Based on Transit IC Card Data
    MAXiao-lei,LIU Cong-cong, LIU Jian-feng,CHEN Feng, YU Hai-yang
    2015, 15(4): 78-84. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1523KB) ( )  

    In order to analyze urban bus passengers' travel characteristic, this paper proposes several data mining algorithms for boarding stop inference based on IC card and GPS data. For those buses with GPS devices, a data-fusion method with GPS data is developed to estimate individual passenger’s boarding stop. For those buses without GPS devices, an improved Bayesian decision tree algorithm with varying steps is presented to calculate the likelihood of each possible boarding stop. In addition, Markov Chain optimization technique is applied to reduce the computational complexity. Empirical data from Beijing transit route are used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms. The results demonstrate that the accuracy of identified boarding stop can be guaranteed and the algorithm complexity can be well controlled to meet the requirements of practical application. As a result, the methods can be widely adopted for urban public transportation system.

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    The Effect and Potential Study of Eco-driving on Taxi Fuel Consumption
    ZHAO Xiao-hua, CHEN Chen, WU Yi-ping, RONG Jian, LIU Ying
    2015, 15(4): 85-91. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2062KB) ( )  

    Taxi actual operating data on Beijing urban basic freeway section is taken and then divided according to driving cycle and level of service(LOS), based on which the effect and potential to fuel consumption of eco-driving under different conditions is analyzed. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is used to analyze the effect to fuel consumption of driver behavior under different conditions. The result shows that taxis accelerating and decelerating are frequently on urban basic freeway section. With the improvement of LOS, taxi fuel consumption is increased under the condition of acceleration and steady running, but it is reduced under deceleration. The main vehicle fuel consumption comes from the accelerating process at low LOS. Considering the conditions' contribution to total fuel consumption, eco-driving fuel-saving potential calculation method is proposed to analyze benefits of eco-driving. It turns out that accelerating process has highest fuel-saving potential and the whole fuel consumption reduction on urban basic freeway section could be 11.18% when adopting eco-driving.

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    Driver Income Equity Model and Simulation under Carpooling Mode
    ZHANGWei,HE Rui-chun,XIAO Qiang,MAChang-xi
    2015, 15(4): 92-98. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1424KB) ( )  

    Considering taxi driver psychology for equity, driver income under taxi carpooling mode is researched. Equity psychology model of driver income under carpooling mode is established, and psychology and behavior of drivers are analyzed based on equity theory. Then the influence of total passenger demand and driver behavior on income is analyzed through simulation. The results show that, the influence of total passengers demand on driver average income is large, and the appropriate ratio of supply and demand is the key factor of increasing driver income; when the ratio is big, the driver behavior for passengers causes the gap between drivers income increasing and some drivers income lowing; in order to implement successfully carpooling, it is necessary to consider the ratio of supply and demand of local taxi market, and establish reasonable measures to prevent driver behavior for passengers. These conclusions have a certain guiding significance to formulating taxi policy.

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    Reconstruction Mechanisms of Holiday Tour under Integrated Multimodal Travel Information Service
    WANG Bo-bin, SHAO Chun-fu, JI Xun, ZHU-GE Cheng-xiang, YANG Ting
    2015, 15(4): 99-105. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2128KB) ( )  

    Integrated multimodal travel information (IMTI) is a key factor for holiday travel reconstruction. This paper takes holiday tour as the study object, and investigates the reconstruction mechanisms of holiday tour under IMTI service based on the theory of decision hierarchy. An activity-based survey was conducted during the holiday in 2012, and a structural equation model was developed based on the survey data. The estimated model takes personal attributes, information influence and history dependence of activity and travel needs into account. Results suggest that IMTI has a significant negative effect on the holiday activity and travel behavior. The more IMTI perceived by the traveler, the simpler the tour spatiotemporal and structural complexity will be. In addition, under the influence of IMTI, reconstruction direction of holiday tour is not random, but relies on the past travel behavior or habit.

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    Residential Parking Spaces Shared Capability Assessment Model
    DUAN Man-zhen,YANG Zhao-sheng,ZHANG Lin,YU De-xin
    2015, 15(4): 106-112. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1947KB) ( )  

    Considering from the ideology of parking resources sharing, the residential parking spaces shared service capability assessment model is researched. First, the basic conditions of sharing parking are analyzed, then the available characteristics of parking spaces are analyzed. On this basis, a sharing parking service capacity assessment model is proposed, model parameter values and distribution rules are studied by the statistical analysis method. Statistical result shows that, the average time of the adjacent vehicles in and out of the parking space is about 62.6 seconds. The parking data fitted results show that residential areas parking space available time obey Negative Exponential Distribution, parking time of the sharing vehicle obey Gamma Distribution. In order to guarantee the practicability of the model, this paper provides reference data for available parking state parameters, shape and scale parameter values of the Gamma Distribution. The example result shows that the residential sharing parking can provide about 55% residential parking spaces resources for its adjacent buildings.

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    Model and Algorithm for Bus Parking Site Layout Optimization Problem
    WEI Ming, CHEN Xue-wu,SUN Bo
    2015, 15(4): 113-117. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1416KB) ( )  

    Existing studies have not integrated bus station parked vehicle location and route scheduling as a whole, which cannot maximize the efficiency of the entire transit system. For the imbalance in time and space of number of parking vehicles belonged to all of start- end stops, this paper studies a mixed integer programming model for bus parking site layout optimization problem. The model involves how to determine the best location and the number of parking station, and arrange all vehicles belong to each route to the appropriate parking station. The objective is to minimize a total of round- trip mileages for all buses from start-end stops to parking stations, where some realistic constraints such as station' s capacity, construction costs and maximum mileage etc are considered. According to characteristic of the model, a two-stage heuristic algorithm, which gives specific solving process and analyzes its computational complexity, is proposed to obtain the model' s non-inferior solutions. Finally, a numerical example is taken to calculate its best scheme and analyze influence of parameters' sensitivity on them, which shows model and its algorithm' correctness and effectiveness.

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    Model of Traffic Police Patrol Considering the Influence of Traffic Lights
    LI Zhi-heng, ZHAO Ning-yu, TAN Ji-yuan
    2015, 15(4): 118-122. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1517KB) ( )  

    When the traffic police doing the traffic patrol, they need to determine the optimal routes in advance. An optimal route should cover all the roads, have the shortest route and spend the least time. A method is given to calculate the traffic patrol routes. The routes not only can cover all the roads but also spend the least time. The time that the traffic police spend is affected by the length of the routes and the traffic lights. This paper considers the both and establishes the model of traffic police patrol. Using the twostage method, the model is solved. By simulation calculation, this paper gives the police patrol routes on specific road network. And the results are compared with other two methods. Through the analysis of the results, it finds out that this paper proposed method is better others.

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    Calculation Method of Road Link Capacity with Fixed-dwelling Bus Stop
    LIU Lu,MAO Bao-hua,LIANG Xiao,WEIWei,SHI Rui-jia
    2015, 15(4): 123-128. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1622KB) ( )  

    There is no doubt that the road link capacity is affected by the layout of bus-stop. Meanwhile, the impact of dwelling way on road link capacity cannot be ignored to some extent. In this paper, a typical c_M/ M/1 queueing model is proposed to analyze the waiting time for entering the fixed-dwelling bus stop. Based on this, road link capacity is estimated from the view of time occupation. Results show that compared with free-dwelling bus stop, the effective berth number of fixed-dwelling bus stop has a more distinct marginal decreasing law of value. On the one hand the increasing failure rate at fixed-dwelling bus stop reduces link capacity, on the other hand the less service time caused by fixed-dwelling compensates link capacity. When the bus arrival rate is getting close to saturation, the adjustment factor of road link capacity with fixeddwelling bus stop is about 0.96 and this factor is one percent increase over the factor of free-dwelling bus stop.

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    Evaluation of Coordination between Bus Lines Resource Allocation and Peak Passenger Flow
    FENG Shu-min,SHEN Xiang-hao
    2015, 15(4): 129-133. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1251KB) ( )  

    The coordinated development between bus lines resource allocation and peak passenger flow is an important guarantee for sustainable development of the public transport system. To evaluate the coordination degree of the relationship between the two objects, through in-depth study of the planning and operation of bus system, uses DEA(data envelopment analysis), the evaluation model is established, which put bus vehicle number, station number and passenger flow strength along the bus line as input indicators, and put the peak passenger flow and peak load ratio suitability as output indicators. Taking 86 bus lines in the urban area of Harbin city as the decision making units, by using CCR model from DEA, gets the relative efficiency value of each line, and gives the coordination degree for each line. The result shows that 40 lines are under strong coordination, 34 lines are under inferior coordination, 9 lines are under mild imbalance, and 3 lines are under critical imbalance, the whole bus system is generally at inferior coordination level. The proposed evaluation method is practical in actual operation, can provide the theoretical basis for planning and management of public transport.

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    Transit Priority Based on Urban Traffic Capacity Analysis
    JIN An, LI Fa-zhi
    2015, 15(4): 134-139. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1545KB) ( )  

    Infrastructure construction mainly including road and rail can temporarily relieve the contradictions between traffic supply and demand. But there is un-sustainability, because capital and time is limit. So the key point of managing traffic congestion is how to allocate limited traffic resources. In this paper, basing on an integrated transport model, a traffic system capacity optimization method is proposed as a breakthrough of the right of way for the bus. This method proposes the definition of transportation system person capacity. It builds the criteria to measure comfort and controllability. It establishes hierarchical bus lane layout method. It dynamically adjusts road resources between bus and car to protect the right of way of ground bus. It balances the travel speed between car and bus. It transforms personal best into system optimization. It is a new path to implement transit priority. In Guangzhou, capacity analysis technique is applied to the actual road network, and resource allocation scheme is proposed based on bus lane scheme. It guides the development of Guangzhou city traffic.

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    Research of Transport Product Choice for Railway Passengers Based on Nested Logit Model
    WANGWen-xian,CHEN Ding-jun,LV Hong-xia,JIANG Feng
    2015, 15(4): 140-146. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1251KB) ( )  

    Through the questionnaire of Chengdu-Wuhan railway, together with the generalization of sample data, the feature of passengers boarding choice is described. Based on the maximum random utility theory, departure time and boarding mode are taken as alternative parts, and passenger characteristic, travel characteristic together with train service level are taken as utility variables. The Nested Logit model is built, with departure time locates in upper layer and boarding choice locates in lower layer. The demarcating result of regress parameter shows that boarding choice of passengers is greatly influenced by income, trip purpose, trip distance, train fares and running time. And transport product choice of passengers is greatly influenced by age, travel cost sources, income, trip distance, train fares and running time. This model can reflect the current situation of passenger transport product demand in this railway, theoretical basis for the legitimate design and adjustment.

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    Railway Express Freight Product Reliability Evaluation Based on Petri Net Model
    WANG Dan-zhu, LANG Mao-xiang, SUN Yan
    2015, 15(4): 147-153. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1481KB) ( )  

    To accurately evaluate the reliability of railway express freight product, on the basis of analysis on reliability influence factors of it, a fault tree is built, and the minimal cut sets of the fault tree is given. Combined with the basic theory of Petri net and fault tree analysis, the fault tree of railway express freight product is transformed into Petri net simulation model, and this transformation is proved to be an equivalent transformation. Using Matlab simulation software, the reliability and the importance of failure factors of railway express freight product between Beijing and Shanghai are obtained. Empirical results indicate the Petri net can solve the problem efficiently and effectively, which demonstrates feasibility of the method in addressing this problem. Research results of this paper will provide a scientific basis and necessary support in improving the reliability and market competitiveness of railway express freight product.

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    Continuous Travel Characteristics Based on Travel Time Data
    ZHANG Tian-chang, SHI Xiao-fa, LIWei-feng
    2015, 15(4): 154-160. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2301KB) ( )  

    Travel time samples collected by fixed traffic detectors usually consist of two parts: continuous travel time and discontinuous travel time. In the previous study, the continuous travel time samples are recognized by the fixed threshold; however, the outcomes cannot be proved accurate and correct. Converting travel time samples to time series whose difference value is stationary stochastic process, recognition becomes more scientific and effective by using a statistical parametric method of outlier detection. The ratio of discontinuous travel data is a typical indicator of recognition based on empirical study. The results of the association analysis indicate that the ratio is stable under 4 minute ride whereas when it comes to beyond this range, the ratio is influenced by the road grade, road length, traffic condition and locational factors.

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    Ideal Commute Time Analysis Based on Traveler’s Cognition
    HE Ming-wei, ZHAO Sheng-chuan, HE Min
    2015, 15(4): 161-165. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1230KB) ( )  

    Ideal commute time can provide some important implications for understanding residential location choice, jobs-housing relationship, commute mode choice, urban land use and spatial layout and so on. Taking Kunming as a case study, the distributions of ideal commute times and the differences between actual and ideal commute times are analyzed. Further, the factors affecting ideal commute time are identified based on ordered Logistic regression model. The results show that ideal commute time has the largest proportion in the interval of [10, 20) minutes and doesn’t always tend to 0, which supports the commute time can offer a positive utility. 71.3% of commuters is not satisfied with actual commute time and expect to shorten it. On the other hand, 8.4% of commuters asserts that his ideal commute time is longer than the actual commute time. At the same time, the variables such as age, gender, education level, household income, and residential location have significant impact on ideal commute times.

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    An Optimization Model of Multi-exit Evacuation Based on Point Queue Model
    LI Ming-hua,YUAN Zhen-zhou,XU Yan,ZANG Guan-zhi
    2015, 15(4): 166-172. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1983KB) ( )  

    In order to reduce the exit using imbalance caused by evacuees’blind exit choice during multiexit room evacuation, we propose an optimization model of exit choice under the multi-exit room evacuation based on point queue model. While, a hybrid algorithm based on genetic and simulated annealing algorithm is designed to solve the optimization model. For demonstrating the effective, a cellular automata model with certainty exit choice decision is presented to investigate the influence of different multi-exit selection schemes on evacuation time, including the multi-exit selection scheme obtained by our optimization model. The comparative results show that the exit selection scheme obtained by our optimization model based on the point queue model can balance the utilization of the multi-exit during the evacuation and decrease the evacuation time. Thus, the optimization model is helpful to make pedestrian evacuation scheme.

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    Modeling and Analysis of Modern Tram Evacuation Performance Considering Effect of Obstacles
    LIU Bin,MAJian,MOU Rui-fang,WANG Xian-ming,SHEN Yi-xin
    2015, 15(4): 173-180. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1967KB) ( )  

    In recent years, evacuation performance evaluation taking into account of different facility layout has become a necessary procedure of the passenger carriage design. Considering that obstacle effects will influence tram evacuation significantly in a long and narrow aisle, this paper introduces the concept of perception area to describe an area which influences the decision making process of an evacuee to decide his next step. Further, we assign those chairs and some other low obstacle characteristics representing their availability for evacuees to simulate evacuation under a disordered and uncontrolled condition. To verify the simulation results, a fundamental model(M1)is established and a circumstance is configured that can be simulated by both AnyLogic® and M1. Simulation results indicate that two models above make resemble results. The curve N k O - t k evac can reflect pedestrian behaviors in this situation in details, based on which we can optimize and revise the carriage design. With the increasing of perception area, the evacuation time becomes smaller, meaning the perception area do provide helpful information for evacuees.

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    Robust Optimization for Rail Transit Network under Uncertainty Demand
    SUN Yang,LIU Xing-cai,JING Chun-guang,SONG Rui,NIE Ting-ting
    2015, 15(4): 181-186. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1327KB) ( )  

    Rail transit network design is the key of rail transit planning. The rail transit network design problem under uncertainty demand is studied. The robustness of rail network under uncertainty demand is defined. According to two assumptions respectively that uncertainty demand could be predicted, could not be predicted, scenario model and minmax model are proposed, whose objectives are to minimize total length of rail transit lines, minimize total travel distances of passenger, and minimize total transfer times of passenger. Two methods based on Genetic Algorithm are developed to solve the two proposed models respectively. Scenario model makes a tradeoff between the network performance and the anti-jamming ability to uncertainty demand. Minmax model makes the network perform better for the worst-case scenario. At last, a numerical example is given. The validity of the proposed models and algorithms are demonstrated by numerical results.

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    Modeling Behavior of Cruising for On-street Parking Based on Time Value
    DING Huan, GUO Hong-wei, ZHANG Yu-jie,WANGWu-hong
    2015, 15(4): 187-191. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1285KB) ( )  

    Car drivers are inclined to cruising at low speed while finding proper on- street parking space. Such cruising behavior can cause traffic congestion, and increase the energy consumption and pollution emission. With the consideration of parking duration, walking time after parking and parking fee, and considering the time value, a model for analyzing the behavior of cruising for parking is proposed. The time value in parking choice is introduced and the influence of parking fee on parking choice is analyzed quantitatively. The results show that parking fee has leverage effect on cruising behavior while cruising time for non-work based trip is longer than that for work based trip. The model can explore the key variables in the behavior of cruise for parking. The results are helpful to give a better understanding of parking behavior and hoped to balance the parking demand between on-street and off-street parking.

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    Probabilistic Model of Capacity of Short Right-turn Lanes at Signalized Intersections
    ZHANG Shuang,CHANG Yu-lin,WU Zhen-hong
    2015, 15(4): 192-197. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1595KB) ( )  

    In the design of intersections, some imported lanes are widened into short lanes. Since the limited length of short lanes, there occurs the potential effect of queue blockage. This paper takes into account of the stochastic nature of traffic flow and the effect of queue blockage to the short right-turn lane. A case study in short right- turn lane, this paper develops a mathematical model to estimate the capacity of a signalized intersection approach with a short right-turn lane. Then, a VISSIM simulation model is founded. According to the comparison of the mathematical model, the HCM method and the VISSIM simulation model, the accuracy and adaptability of the mathematical model are verified. Further, the impact of the proportion of through traffic on capacity is investigated, the impact of the length of short lanes and the flow rate on vehicle delay are analyzed. This model has reference significance for accurate calculation of capacity of short right-turn lanes at signalized intersections.

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    Container Slot Allocation Model of Mixed Storage in“Ships, Yard, Trains”Yard
    WU Hui-rong,ZHU Xiao-ning
    2015, 15(4): 198-203. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1337KB) ( )  

    In order to improve the ability and operational efficiency of container sea- rail port, this paper examines the container slot allocation problem according to rolling plan and rules of mixed storage in“ships, yard, trains”yard. Given that operation time and block of pending containers are known, the container slot allocation model is established and a solving algorithm is designed based on heuristic algorithm to minimize containers overlapping amounts. The computational experiment shows that the model and the solving algorithm are effective to reduce the containers overlapping amounts, meet the requirements of different type containers storage, and improve the operation efficiency of the port.

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    Influence of In-vehicle Information System Operation on Driver Action Distraction
    MAYan-li, LENG Xue, HU Bao-yu
    2015, 15(4): 204-209. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1529KB) ( )  

    The use of in-vehicle information system (IVIS) provides drivers with more comfortable driving environment, also makes them more easily distracted. The driver’s action distraction is defined based on the multiple resources theory. The car radio, CD, MP3 and navigator are chosen as the research object of IVIS, the influence of IVIS operations on driver action distraction are analyzed quantitatively based on the experimental test, and the significant factors of leading to action distraction are also analyzed. Results show that the traffic environment and IVIS operations have a significant influence on drivers action distraction; the car radio operation has a smaller effect on action distraction; MP3 adjustment leads that the time of hands off the steering wheel increases by more than 8.56%, and conflict or error rate increases by 9.72%; navigation path input leads that the time of hands off the steering wheel increases significantly, and conflict or error rate increases by 28.17%; voice route guidance makes the brake operation error increase.

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    Ranking Perceptions of Taxi Service Quality among Participants with VIKOR
    YAO Zhi-gang
    2015, 15(4): 210-215. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1280KB) ( )  

    To explore the consistency of taxi service quality assessment among four participants such as regulator, manager, taxi driver and passenger, seventeen indexes of taxi service quality are proposed from a revised SERVPERF model. The ranked perceptions of taxi service quality of participants with VIKOR are based on the taxi service investigation data from Hangzhou, a city locates at Eastern China. It compares the assessment value of passenger with the other counterparts, and finds that taxi service quality assessments of regulator and manager are partly overestimate taxi service quality separately, but taxi driver overestimates obviously. The results indicate that combining SERVPERF with VIKOR is an effective method to rank perceptions of taxi service quality, and self-complacency of taxi driver should be eliminated to improve taxi service quality.

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    Commuters' Loyalty to Public Transit Based on RFM Model
    SUN Shi-chao,YANG Dong-yuan
    2015, 15(4): 216-221. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1430KB) ( )  

    Based on the data collected from commuters’transit usage questionnaire in Shanghai, this paper analyzes commuters’loyalty to public transit by the use of RFM model in marketing and some relevant statistical approaches. The definition and classification of the“loyalty”are discussed from two dimensions which can be denoted as“behavioral loyalty”and“attitudinal loyalty”. Combined with theories on service level of bus transit, customer satisfaction and loyalty, the distribution of the interviewed commuter’s loyalty to public transit in Shanghai is given under the two dimensions. Then, casual model is also conducted to analyze the influence factor of the“loyalty”. The results indicate that about 33% interviewed commuters who had shown a high-intensity usage of bus transit may transferred to other transport modes and the “loyalty”is influenced by age, education, ticket price, bus waiting time, stability of travel time and crowding.

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    Performance Measurement and Improvement Strategy Priority of Pedestrian Environment at Signalized Intersection
    LI Bao,ZHU Shun-ying,JIN Zhi-ying,WANG Hong,CHEN Peng
    2015, 15(4): 222-227. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1413KB) ( )  

    Based on satisfaction theory, a method that measuring the subjective performance and improving the strategy priority of signalized intersection on the basis of the psychological perception when pedestrians cross the street is proposed, in order to overcome the limitations that the performance improvement research on signalized intersection pedestrian environment has focused on a particular features. Through the analysis of American customer satisfaction index (ACSI) model, combined with the characteristics of pedestrian crossing signalized intersection, the questionnaire indicators system is designed. By analyzing the indicators system of cause & effect to build the structure equation model (SEM), using the multi- factor interactive impact method to determine the importance of each index, adopting the pedestrian satisfaction index (PSI) method to evaluate the performance. Lastly combined with the level of importance and performance to establish importance performance analysis (IPA) matrix, using improvement strategy priority to improve the pedestrian environment performance at the signalized intersection in Wuhan, and raise the improvement suggestions.

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