关键词: 铁路运输, 集装箱运输, 运量预测, 经济计量方法

Abstract:

A railway container freight volume forecasting model is proposed in this paper based on econometric techniques, which can accommodate multiinfluencing factors. Some influencing factors are considered in this forecasting model, such as longterm trends of the national economy, industrial structure, layout of production, railway transport structure, level of the consumption, etc. All these factors are respectively set to be endogenous variable, exogenous variable or prior endogenous variables that based on characteristics of different factors. Then the equations formation of the forecasting model is present. In the last section, the paper estimates and testes (including global and final tests) the proposed model. Test results show the error rate of the model is small, and has high precision. Thus the model can be used for forecasting of railway container freight volume, and it also provides basic data for planning and development of railway container transportation.

Key words: railway transportation, container transportation, freight volume forecasting, econometric techniques