交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2020, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (6): 71-76.

• 变革中的交通运输 • 上一篇    下一篇

新冠疫情对老年人公交出行行为的影响

刘建荣*，郝小妮，石文瀚   

  1. 华南理工大学 土木与交通学院，广州 510640
  • 收稿日期:2020-06-20 修回日期:2020-08-06 出版日期:2020-12-25 发布日期:2020-12-25
  • 作者简介:刘建荣(1984-)，男，江西赣州人，讲师，博士.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金/National Natural Science Foundation of China(51578247).

Impact of COVID-19 on the Elderly's Bus Travel Behavior

LIU Jian-rong, HAO Xiao-ni, SHI Wen-han   

  1. School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China
  • Received:2020-06-20 Revised:2020-08-06 Online:2020-12-25 Published:2020-12-25

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摘要：

新冠肺炎疫情对交通运输产生巨大影响，但现有成果主要研究疫情爆发期疫情对交通运输的影响，较少有分析后疫情阶段的出行行为.本文利用验证性因素分析模型及Logit 模型，研究后疫情阶段新冠病毒，老年人个人统计学特征，老年人对新冠肺炎疫情严重程度的感知等心理因素对老年人出行行为的影响.研究结果表明：短距离出行中，新冠疫情和对新冠肺炎疫情严重程度的感知对出行方式选择没有显著影响；新冠疫情和对新冠肺炎疫情严重程度的感知对老年人使用公交意愿具有显著影响；此外，这两个因素也影响老年人外出概率和使用公交的概率.

关键词: 城市交通, 出行行为, Logit模型, 老年人, 心理因素, 个人统计学特征

Abstract:

COVID-19 has caused huge negative impacts on traffic and transportation. Existing research focused on the impact of COVID- 19 on the traffic during the outbreak phase. There are still few studies related to the impact of COVID- 19 on travel behavior during the post- epidemic phase. This paper analyzed the impact of COVID-19 during the post-epidemic phase, travelers' demographic characteristics, and perception of the COVID- 19 severity on the elderly's travel behavior, with the confirmative factor analysis and Logit modeling. The results show that COVID-19 and perception of its severity have no significant impact on the elderly's short-distance trips. However, they have a significant impact on the elderly's willingness to travel by bus. Furthermore, these two factors have significant impacts on the elderly's trip frequency and bus trips.

Key words: urban traffic, travel behavior, Logit model, the elderly, psychological factor, demographic characteristics

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