考虑需求转移与风险规避的舱位分配

doi:10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2025.01.023

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (1): 241-249.DOI: 10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2025.01.023

考虑需求转移与风险规避的舱位分配

郑建风^*，秦苑，赵志昊

大连海事大学，交通运输工程学院，辽宁大连116026

收稿日期:2024-09-07 修回日期:2024-10-17 接受日期:2024-10-29 出版日期:2025-02-25 发布日期:2025-02-24
作者简介:郑建风(1981—)，男，浙江金华人，教授，博士。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(72371046)。

Slot Allocation Considering Demand Transfer and Risk-averse

ZHENG Jianfeng^*, QIN Yuan, ZHAO Zhihao

College of Transportation Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, Liaoning, China

Received:2024-09-07 Revised:2024-10-17 Accepted:2024-10-29 Online:2025-02-25 Published:2025-02-24
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China (72371046)。

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 传统的舱位分配模型未充分考虑舱位需求的流动性和收益波动，本文考虑舱位需求转移的情景，研究集装箱班轮运输中的舱位分配问题，细分舱位需求市场，即现货市场、短约市场及长约市场，其中，现货市场和短约市场会发生舱位需求转移。为减少由于舱位需求不确定性所导致的收益波动，本文引入风险规避理论。基于此，构建混合整数非线性舱位分配模型。进一步，对模型进行转化及线性化处理，得到的线性规划模型可通过Gurobi快速求解。以马士基公司的一条从亚太至欧洲的航线作为案例进行分析验证。数值结果表明：相较于不考虑风险规避的情景，考虑风险规避的情景能够将收益波动降低约80%；短约市场的设置可以有效地促进收益增加，减小收益波动；风险系数灵敏性分析表明，航运公司需要积极关注现货市场，根据市场情况及时调整舱位分配策略，权衡收益与收益波动。

关键词: 水路运输, 需求转移, 风险规避, 舱位分配, 收益波动

Abstract: This paper studies the slot allocation problem for container liner shipping. Traditional slot allocation models have not fully taken into account demand liquidity and revenue fluctuations. This paper considers demand transfer and demand market segmentation, i.e. spot market, short-term contract market, and long-term contract market, where demand transfer occurs between the spot market and short-term contract market. To reduce revenue fluctuations caused by demand uncertainty, this paper introduces risk aversion theory into the studied problem. Then, a mixed-integer nonlinear slot allocation model is constructed. Based on model transformation and linearization, we obtain a linear programming model that can be efficiently solved by Gurobi. The case study is based on an Asia-Pacific-Europe shipping route operated by Maersk Line. Numerical results show that: (1) compared with the scenario without considering risk, the revenue fluctuation reduction in the scenario considering risk aversion can be approximately 80%; (2) the establishment of short-term contract market can effectively promote revenue growth and reduce revenue fluctuation; (3) sensitivity analysis on risk coefficients indicates that shipping companies need to actively monitor the spot market and promptly adjust their slot allocation strategies based on market conditions to balance the trade- off between revenue and revenue fluctuation.

Key words: waterway transportation, demand transfer, risk-aversion, slot allocation, revenue fluctuation

中图分类号:

U695.2

郑建风, 秦苑, 赵志昊. 考虑需求转移与风险规避的舱位分配[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2025, 25(1): 241-249.

ZHENG Jianfeng, QIN Yuan, ZHAO Zhihao. Slot Allocation Considering Demand Transfer and Risk-averse[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2025, 25(1): 241-249.

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链接本文: http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2025.01.023

http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2025/V25/I1/241

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考虑需求转移与风险规避的舱位分配

Slot Allocation Considering Demand Transfer and Risk-averse

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