关键词: 可靠性, 城市交通, 路网容量, Monte Carlo仿真, 服务水平

Abstract: As one of the most important indexes of road network performance, the capacity reliability is considerably emphasized by the road network planners and managers. Most of the existing evaluation methods in determining the road network maximum capacity pay no attention to the subjections of level of service (LOS). To reflect the LOS demand of travelers and managers in estimating the road network capacity reliability, the bi-level programming model was proposed based on the subjection of LOS. The threshold of increased travel time and saturation as subjections are proposed in the upper programming model. The stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) is set up in the lower programming model to follow the characteristics of route choice. The paper proposes an assessment methodology, which integrates genetic algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation methods to evaluate the capacity reliability. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the practicality of the proposed model under different LOS requirements. This model can effectively provide grounds for road network planning, managment, and improvement of road network performance.

Key words: reliability, urban traffic, road network capacity, Monte Carlo simulation, level of service (LOS)