关键词: 航空运输, 混沌, 关联维数, Lyapunov指数, 后效晚点传播时间

Abstract: As the number of uncertain factors could result in flight delays into the gate, and in two adjacent flights delayed flights ahead will be spread to different levels of rear flight plans to arrive time. To study the law of spread time of flight delays, in this paper, the flight delayed after-effect spread time calculation method was proposed, and the time series of after-effect delay spread time was calculated using delay time distribution of the flights assigned gate in airport and random delay in flights, then to time series information on reserves can be fully reflected, the paper used embedding theorem for state space reconstruction to be a series of phase points, through these phase points , it can be calculated that the parameters of chaos that is the correlation dimension and the Lyapunov exponent. Finally, the chaos parameters were calculated on the G-P algorithm and a small-data method, then chaotic phenomena of the time series was certificated.

Key words: air transportation, chaos, correlation dimension, Lyapunov exponent, after-effect delay spread time