关键词: 交通工程, 元胞传输模型, 城市道路, 交通流估计

Abstract: The real-time and reliable urban traffic flow prediction is the foundation of traffic management and control in the urban traffic. A variable cell transmission model (VCTM) is proposed to improve the ability of the urban traffic flow prediction. Based on the analysis of the defects using the cell transmission model (CTM) to predict the urban traffic flow, two parameters are introduced into the VCTM according to the traffic flow conservation law. In the VCTM, three different types of cell connections are described by three different expressions including simple connection, merge connection and diverge connection. Two parameters of the VCTM increase computational burden, but the cell length is adjustable which ensures that the VCTM can be widely utilized in the roads with different lengths. The simulation results indicate that the VCTM meets the requirements of the traffic flow prediction in the urban traffic.

Key words: traffic engineering, cell transmission model, urban road, traffic flow prediction