道路养护作业区车辆冲突预测及关键因素判别

doi:10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2025.04.021

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (4): 230-240.DOI: 10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2025.04.021

道路养护作业区车辆冲突预测及关键因素判别

许左前¹，陈海龙¹ ，李连进¹ ，张顶²，陈红^*2

1. 安徽交控工程集团有限公司，合肥230022；2.长安大学，运输工程学院，西安710064

收稿日期:2025-05-07 修回日期:2025-05-28 接受日期:2025-06-11 出版日期:2025-08-25 发布日期:2025-08-25
作者简介:许左前(1972—)，男，安徽合肥人，高级工程师。
基金资助:
安徽省交通控股集团科技项目(JKKJ 2021-14）。

Risk Prediction of Vehicle Conflicts and Identification of Critical Factors in Road Maintenance Work Zones

XU Zuoqian¹, CHEN Hailong¹, LI Lianjin¹, ZHANG Ding², CHEN Hong^*2

1. Anhui Transportation Holding Engineering Group Co Ltd, Hefei 230022, China; 2. School of Transportation Engineering, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, China

Received:2025-05-07 Revised:2025-05-28 Accepted:2025-06-11 Online:2025-08-25 Published:2025-08-25
Supported by:
Science and Technology Project of Anhui Transportation Holding Group (JKKJ 2021-14）。

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为研究养护作业区内车辆冲突的特性并降低换道过程中的冲突风险，基于无人机采集的城市道路养护作业区视频数据，提取轨迹数据进行冲突预测，并分析静态防护设施与周围车辆特征对冲突风险的影响。通过引入拓展碰撞时间(ETTC)、停车距离(SDI)和作业区碰撞时间(WZ-TTC)这3项关键指标，结合CatBoost算法实现冲突风险的高精度预测，测试集上的准确率达93.3%。研究表明，在养护作业区内，主车与周围车辆的相对速度、距离，以及车辆与静态设施的间距是影响冲突风险的主要因素。护栏等静态设施的布设会显著影响交通冲突风险，这种影响随着距离增大而逐渐减弱。当车辆与护栏的间距小于20m时，左前方车辆的相对速度是最关键的风险因素。随着距离增加到20~30m区间，左后方车辆的速度影响开始凸显，而超过30m后，护栏的制约作用基本消失。同时，左侧车道的车辆参数对冲突风险的影响程度高于右侧车道。

关键词: 交通工程, 交通冲突风险预测, CatBoost, 道路养护作业区, 换道安全

Abstract: To investigate the characteristics of vehicle conflicts within maintenance work zones and reduce the risk of conflicts during lane-changing maneuvers, this paper collected the video data of urban road maintenance work zones by drones and extracted the trajectory data for conflict prediction. The study analyzed the impact of static protective facilities and the characteristics of surrounding vehicles on conflict risk. By introducing three key indicators: Extended Time to Collision (ETTC), Stopping Distance Index (SDI), and Work Zone Time to Collision (WZ-TTC), and applying the CatBoost algorithm, the study performed high-accuracy conflict risk prediction with 93.3% accuracy on the test set. It was found that within maintenance work zones, the relative speed and distance between the primary vehicle and surrounding vehicles, as well as the distance between vehicles and static facilities, are the main factors influencing conflict risk. The deployment of static facilities, such as guardrails, significantly impacts traffic conflict risk, and this influence gradually weakens as the distance increases. When the distance between a vehicle and a guardrail is less than 20 meters, the relative speed of the front-left vehicle becomes the most critical risk factor. As the distance increases to the range of 20 to 30 meters, the influence of the rear-left vehicle's speed becomes more prominent. When the distance exceeds 30 meters, the constraining effect of the guardrail essentially disappears. Additionally, vehicle parameters in the left lane have a greater impact on conflict risk compared to those in the right lane.

Key words: traffic engineering, traffic conflict risk prediction, CatBoost, work zone, safety of lane change

中图分类号:

U418.2

许左前, 陈海龙, 李连进, 张顶, 陈红. 道路养护作业区车辆冲突预测及关键因素判别[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2025, 25(4): 230-240.

XU Zuoqian, CHEN Hailong, LI Lianjin, ZHANG Ding, CHEN Hong. Risk Prediction of Vehicle Conflicts and Identification of Critical Factors in Road Maintenance Work Zones[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2025, 25(4): 230-240.

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道路养护作业区车辆冲突预测及关键因素判别

Risk Prediction of Vehicle Conflicts and Identification of Critical Factors in Road Maintenance Work Zones

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