交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (3): 346-357.DOI: 10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2025.03.031

• 工程应用与案例分析 • 上一篇    下一篇

不同光照条件下交通事故严重程度影响因素的可转移性分析

潘义勇*,朱梦   

  1. 南京林业大学,汽车与交通工程学院,南京210037
  • 收稿日期:2025-02-26 修回日期:2025-03-23 接受日期:2025-04-02 出版日期:2025-06-25 发布日期:2025-06-22
  • 作者简介:潘义勇(1980—),男,安徽安庆人,副教授,博士。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(51508280)。

Transferability Analysis of Factors Influencing Severity of Traffic Accidents Under Different Lighting Conditions

PAN Yiyong*,ZHU Meng   

  1. College of Automobile and Traffic Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
  • Received:2025-02-26 Revised:2025-03-23 Accepted:2025-04-02 Online:2025-06-25 Published:2025-06-22
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China (51508280)。

摘要: 为探究不同光照条件下交通事故严重程度影响因素的异质性和可转移性,本文基于均值和方差异质性的随机参数Logit模型,对机动车交通事故严重程度的影响因素进行分析。将事故严重程度分为3类,研究整合驾驶员特性、道路特性、环境特性和车辆特性这4个维度,纳入25个潜在解释变量,通过捕捉随机参数的均值和方差变化,模型充分挖掘了事故数据中的异质性特征,并利用对数似然比验证了影响因素的时间不稳定性以及在不同光照条件下的可转移性。基于边际效应估计结果,对统计显著的解释变量在事故损伤严重程度中的差异化进行量化分析。研究结果表明:事故严重程度的影响因素在不同光照条件下呈现出显著异质性,且表现出显著的不可转移性。车辆进行转弯行为、事故发生在道路外仅在2017年白天的交通事故模型中显著,交叉口类型为四向交叉路口仅在2019年黑夜交通事故中显著。驾驶员性别为男性在2018年和2019年的白天交通事故中显著,其对仅财产损失和轻伤事故影响程度呈现出相反的结果。驾驶员疏忽操作在2018年的白天和黑夜无照明的事故模型中均显著,其对轻伤事故影响程度呈现相反效果。

关键词: 交通工程, 事故严重程度, 均值和方差异质性的随机参数Logit模型, 时间不稳定性, 可转移性

Abstract: To explore the heterogeneity and transferability of factors affecting the severity of traffic accidents under different lighting conditions, this paper gave a transferability analysis based on a random parameters Logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances. The severity of accidents was classified into three categories, and the study integrated the characteristics of drivers, road, environment, and vehicles, including 25 potential explanatory variables. By capturing the mean and variance changes of random parameters, the model fully explored the heterogeneity characteristics in accident data, and used log likelihood ratio to verify the temporal instability and transferability of influencing factors under different lighting conditions. Based on the marginal effect estimation results, a quantitative analysis was conducted on the differentiation of statistically significant explanatory variables in the severity of accident injuries. The research results indicate that the factors affecting the severity of accidents exhibit significant heterogeneity under different lighting conditions and show significant non transferability. The turning behavior of vehicles and the occurrence of accidents outside the road were only significant in the traffic accident model during daytime in 2017, while the accidents at four-way intersections was only significant during nighttime in 2019. The accidents of male drivers were significantly higher during daytime in 2018 and 2019, with opposite effects on the extent of property damage and minor injury accidents. The accident due to the negligence of drivers in operation were significant during both daytime and nighttime unlit accident models without lightning in 2018, and its impact on minor injury accidents showed the opposite effect.

Key words: traffic engineering, accident severity, random parameters Logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances, temporal instability, transferability

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