交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (4): 349-360.DOI: 10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2025.04.032

• 工程应用与案例分析 • 上一篇    下一篇

穿村镇公路车辆跟驰冲突暴露时间生存分析

戢晓峰a,b ，李金a,b ，普永明a,b ，卢梦媛a,b ，韩春阳*a,b   

  1. 昆明理工大学，a.交通工程学院；b.云南省现代物流工程研究中心，昆明650500
  • 收稿日期:2024-08-26 修回日期:2024-09-25 接受日期:2024-10-12 出版日期:2025-08-25 发布日期:2025-08-25
  • 作者简介:戢晓峰(1982—)，男，湖北随州人，教授，博士。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金 (52062024)；云南省交通运输厅科技创新及示范项目 (2023-83(Ⅱ))。

Survival Analysis of Car-following Conflict Exposure Time on Through-village Highway

JI Xiaofenga,b, LI Jina,b, PU Yongminga,b, LU Mengyuana,b, HAN Chunyang*a,b   

  1. a. Faculty of Transportation Engineering; b. Yunnan Modern Logistics Engineering Research Center, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, China
  • Received:2024-08-26 Revised:2024-09-25 Accepted:2024-10-12 Online:2025-08-25 Published:2025-08-25
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China (52062024)；Yunnan Provincial Department of Transportation Science and Technology Innovation and Demonstration Project (2023-83(Ⅱ))。

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摘要： 为揭示穿村镇公路车辆跟驰冲突风险的严重性和持续性特征以及关键影响因素，本文以云南省某二级公路穿村镇段为例，利用无人机采集车辆跟驰视频数据，并引入碰撞角度改进碰撞时间(Time To Collision, TTC)计算方法，使其适用于二维冲突风险评估。以二维碰撞时间(Two-dimensional Time To Collision, TTC2D )15%分位数为阈值，提取跟驰冲突轨迹数据，获取跟驰冲突暴露时间。选取路侧行人、交通流和车辆跟驰行为等特征作为变量，并基于生存分析确定影响跟驰冲突暴露时间的关键协变量及其定量关系。结果表明：碰撞角度大于20°后，经典TTC计算方法平均低估碰撞时间约1.15s，导致高估跟驰冲突风险，TTC2D可规避由碰撞角度带来的风险评估误差；穿村镇公路跟驰冲突暴露时间均值为3.6s，Weibull AFT(Accelerated Failure Time)模型对跟驰冲突暴露时间的拟合效果最好；目标车纵向速度每增加1m·s-1，跟驰冲突暴露时间增加30.21%，前车纵向速度和最短碰撞距离对应每增加1m·s-1和1m时，跟驰冲突暴露时间减少23.66%和3.44%；跟驰冲突暴露时间大于6.13s或目标车与前车纵向速度差大于6.2m·s-1，最短碰撞距离小于12.53m时，是较为危险的跟驰状态，存在严重冲突风险。

关键词: 交通工程, 跟驰冲突暴露时间, 生存分析, 穿村镇公路, 二维碰撞时间

Abstract: This study aims to reveal the characteristics of vehicle conflict risk during car-following on through-village highways, focusing on risk severity, duration, and influencing factors. Data is collected on a typical second-class through-village highway in Yunnan Province using two-day UAV aerial recordings of car-following maneuvers. A two-dimensional Time-to-Collision (TTC2D ) method is employed, incorporating vehicle collision angles, for a more precise conflict risk assessment. For each vehicle, the 15% quantile of TTC2D serves as a threshold to identify high-risk trajectory segments and calculate their durations. A survival analysis is conducted to assess the impact of key factors on the duration of risky car-following conflicts, which includes car-following maneuvers of preceding and following vehicles, and characteristics of surrounding pedestrians and traffic flow. Results reveal that the classical TTC method underestimated collision time by an average of 1.15 seconds when vehicle collision angles exceed 20 degrees, whereas TTC2D provides more accurate conflict risk estimates. The average duration of risky car-following conflicts on through-village highways is 3.6 seconds, with the Weibull Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model demonstrating optimal fitting performance for these durations. An increase in the longitudinal speed of the following vehicle by 1 m·s-1 extended the duration of risky car-following conflicts by 30.21%. Conversely, a 1 m·s-1 increase in the longitudinal speed of the preceding vehicle and a 1 m increment in its minimum collision distance reduces the exposure duration by 23.66% and 3.44%, respectively. In situations where vehicles are exposed to risky car-following conflicts for more than 6.13 seconds, had a longitudinal velocity difference exceeding 6.2 m·s-1, and a shortest collision distance of less than 12.53 m, there was a higher likelihood of experiencing a high-risk car-following conflict.

Key words: traffic engineering, car-following conflict exposure time, survival analysis, through-village highway, two-dimensional time to collision

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