基于动态广义费用的客运通道交通方式选择Logit模型

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为更科学计算运输通道各种交通方式供给能力的配置量，运用随机效用理论和离散选择模型，建立基于动态广义费用的交通方式选择Logit模型，以郑州-西安客运通道为实例，运用Matlab软件编写程序，进行求解验证.研究表明，交通方式建设成本分摊随分担量变化而变化，并与随机感知系数和出行时间价值一起影响各方式分担率.与现有模型的对比表明，各方式分担率变化幅度与建设成本大小差异并非同向；交通方式选择的广义费用是动态变化的，不能仅仅依据静态的在途时间和票价进行方式分担率计算.该模型既能保证出行者的个体要求又能保障各种交通方式的持续运营，所计算的通道各交通方式分担率更符合实际.

关键词: 综合交通运输, 交通方式选择, Logit模型, 客运通道, 动态广义费用

Abstract:

In order to scientifically compute the supply allocation of various transportation modes for passenger corridors, a dynamic generalized transportation cost based logit model is proposed according to the theory of random utility and discrete choice model. The model’s robustness and accuracy were verified via MATLAB programming using the ZhengzhouXi’an Passenger Corridor as a study case. The analysis result indicates that transportation construction cost changes with the share, which is influenced by travel time and the random perception coefficient. Compared with existing models, the changes of sharing rate and that of transportation construction costs in this paper are not in the same direction. For the dynamic changing of generalized transportation costs, the sharing rate calculated only by a static travel time and ticket price is unreliable. The model proposed in this paper cannot only meet the individual demands of travelers, but can also keep the sustainable operation of transportation. The sharing rates calculated by the model for the ZhengzhouXi’an Passenger Corridor are more reasonable than those calculated by traditional models.

Key words: comprehensive transportation, transportation mode choice, Logit model, passenger corridor, dynamic generalized cost

中图分类号:

孙启鹏,朱磊，陈波. 基于动态广义费用的客运通道交通方式选择Logit模型[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2013, 13(4): 15-22.

SUN Qi-peng, ZHU Lei, CHEN Bo. A Dynamic Generalized Cost Based Logit Model for Passenger Corridors[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2013, 13(4): 15-22.

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http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2013/V13/I4/15

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