关键词: 城市交通, 出行行为, BNL模型, 燃油价格, 燃油税, 出行方式

Abstract:

This paper investigates the impacts of fuel price on household travel behaviors based on the stated preference survey and behavior model analysis. It aims to identify household’s responding behavior, key responding factors, and then formulates the household’s travel choice model. The results show that the rise of oil price exerts impacts on the purchasing intention of most potential car buyers. In addition, private car travelers are more sensitive to the fluctuations of oil prices. Reducing the frequency of car using, avoiding traveling during the peak hours, and changing travel mode are the most frequent options in response to increasing oil price. Particularly, the subway related mass transport is the first choice of alternative travel mode. Furthermore, it reveals that the degree of dependence on private car is largely determined by the household’s income and family structure. This study provides theoretical supports and useful implications for formulating traffic demand management strategies. It is suggested to regulate the oil price according to the fuel tax. Moreover, the differences of resident characteristics should be fully considered in the real implementation.

Key words: urban traffic, travel behavior, BNL model, fuel prices, fuel tax, travel mode