ATIS 环境下随机动态路网行程时间可靠性0

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2014, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (4): 73-78.

• 智能交通系统与信息技术 • 上一篇下一篇

ATIS 环境下随机动态路网行程时间可靠性0

郭洪洋^a，张玺^b，刘澜^*a，马亚峰^a

西南交通大学a 交通运输与物流学院；b 经济管理学院，成都610031

收稿日期:2013-11-13 修回日期:2014-01-19 出版日期:2014-08-25 发布日期:2014-09-16
作者简介:郭洪洋（1982-），男，辽宁沈阳人，博士生.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(50908196)；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（SWJTU09ZT18）；四川省学术和技术带头人培养资金项目（川人办发[2008]24号）.

Travel Time Reliability Evaluation of Stochastic Dynamic Road Network with ATIS

GUO Hong-yang^a，ZHANG Xi^b，LIU Lan^a，Ma Ya-feng^a

a. School of Transportation and Logistics；b. School of Economics and Management ，Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031，China

Received:2013-11-13 Revised:2014-01-19 Online:2014-08-25 Published:2014-09-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为评价随机动态道路网络系统在ATIS 环境下的行程时间可靠性，将出行者群体划分为装载和未装载信息接收设备两类，并假设他们均遵循随机动态用户最优原则 (SDUO)进行动态路径选择，运用动态均衡理论建立了基于路径的混合SDUO 不动点模型，并证明该模型至少存在一个不动点.使用离散随机变量序列描述需求的随机动态变化，基于Monte Carlo 模拟和对角化相继平均算法(MSA)，提出了ATIS 环境下随机动态路网的行程时间可靠性评价方法.随后通过算例验证了可靠性评价方法的可行性. 数值结果表明：OD 行程时间可靠性随出发时段动态变化，且在动态情形下，扩大ATIS 市场占有率并不能进一步提高可靠性，反而可能会导致可靠性下降.

关键词: 系统工程, 行程时间可靠性, 不动点, ATIS, 随机动态用户最优

Abstract:

To evaluate the travel time reliability of stochastic dynamic network with ATIS, this study classifies travelers into two groups: with and without the information receiving devise. Both of them are assumed to follow the stochastic dynamic user optimal (SDUO) principle to dynamically choose routes. A route-based mixed SDUO fixed point model is developed according to the dynamic equilibrium theory, which has been proved to have at least one fixed point. The stochastic dynamic demand is described as a discrete random variable sequence. Then, a travel time reliability evaluation procedure is proposed based on the Monte Carlo simulation and diagonalized method of successive average (MSA) for stochastic dynamic road network with ATIS. Then, the feasibility of the proposed approach is tested in an example network. The results show that OD travel time reliability varies as departure time interval changes, and under this dynamic case, the increasing ATIS market penetration rate degrades travel time reliability instead of improving reliability.

Key words: system engineering, travel time reliability, fixed point, ATIS, stochastic dynamic user optimal

中图分类号:

U491

郭洪洋，张玺，刘澜，马亚峰. ATIS 环境下随机动态路网行程时间可靠性0[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2014, 14(4): 73-78.

GUO Hong-yang，ZHANG Xi，LIU Lan，Ma Ya-feng. Travel Time Reliability Evaluation of Stochastic Dynamic Road Network with ATIS[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2014, 14(4): 73-78.

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http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2014/V14/I4/73

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ATIS 环境下随机动态路网行程时间可靠性0

Travel Time Reliability Evaluation of Stochastic Dynamic Road Network with ATIS

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