中长距离通道客流结构及高速铁路运营策略研究

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2015, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (1): 17-22.

• 综合交通运输体系论坛 • 上一篇下一篇

中长距离通道客流结构及高速铁路运营策略研究

朱宇婷¹，毛保华^*1，王永亮²，刘路¹

1. 北京交通大学城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室，北京100044； 2. 中国民航科学技术研究院，北京100028）

收稿日期:2014-08-18 修回日期:2014-11-24 出版日期:2015-02-25 发布日期:2016-02-25
作者简介:朱宇婷（1989-），女，江西南昌人，博士生.
基金资助:
国家基础研究计划项目(2012CB725406)；国家自然科学基金(71131001)；国家自然科学青年基金项目(71201006).

Traffic Structure in Middle-and-long Corridor and Transportation Strategy of High-speed Railway

ZHU Yu-ting¹，MAO Bao-hua¹，WANG Yong-liang²，LIU Lu¹

1. MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory & Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China; 2. China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology, Beijing 100028, China

Received:2014-08-18 Revised:2014-11-24 Online:2015-02-25 Published:2016-02-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以经济性、快速性、便捷性、舒适性及安全性为衡量指标，建立乘客出行广义费用函数；结合非集计理论和方法，构建中长距离通道客流分担率模型.并以武汉—广州客运通道为例，分析不同时间价值下客流结构的变化情况，发现普通铁路更加符合旅客的出行偏好，其客运分担率高于45%.最后，以利润为指标，对高速铁路运营策略进行了分析.研究结果表明，由于普通铁路与高速铁路之间的竞争关系，高速铁路运营利润及铁路总利润难以同时达到最优；当以高速铁路运营利润最大为目标时，高速铁路票价和旅行速度分别为275 元和325km/h；当以铁路总利润最大为目标时，高速铁路票价和旅行速度分别为350元和300km/h.

关键词: 综合交通运输, 高速铁路, 客运通道, Logit模型, 广义费用函数

Abstract:

A generalized cost function of passenger is built with measurement indexes, including economy, speediness, convenience, comfort and security. Then a mode split model is proposed by using the disaggregate theories. In order to analyze the changes of the passenger traffic structure in middle-and-long passenger corridor, Wuhan-Guangzhou corridor is selected as an example. And the market shares of transportation modes are forecasted with different values of time. The results show that the market shares of ordinary railway are more than 45%, which means that ordinary railway is more suitable for passengers. Finally, operation strategy of high-speed railway is analyzed based on profit. Results show that, due to the competition between high-speed railway and ordinary railway, it is difficult to achieve the maximum profit for high-speed railway operator and railway department at the same time. The high-speed railway operator has the highest profit when the price and running speed of high- speed railway are 275 yuan and 325km/h respectively; and the highest profit of railway department can be obtained only when the price and running speed of high-speed railway change to 350 yuan and 300km/h respectively.

Key words: integrated transportation, high-speed railway, passenger corridor, Logit model, utility function

中图分类号:

U293

朱宇婷，毛保华，王永亮，刘路. 中长距离通道客流结构及高速铁路运营策略研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2015, 15(1): 17-22.

ZHU Yu-ting，MAO Bao-hua，WANG Yong-liang，LIU Lu. Traffic Structure in Middle-and-long Corridor and Transportation Strategy of High-speed Railway[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2015, 15(1): 17-22.

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http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2015/V15/I1/17

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中长距离通道客流结构及高速铁路运营策略研究

Traffic Structure in Middle-and-long Corridor and Transportation Strategy of High-speed Railway

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