交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2017, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (3): 7-11.

• 决策论坛 • 上一篇    下一篇

收费公路PPP 项目运营期收益调节的期权价值分析

蔡晓琰,周国光*   

  1. 长安大学经济与管理学院,西安710064
  • 收稿日期:2016-11-02 修回日期:2017-01-17 出版日期:2017-06-25 发布日期:2017-06-26
  • 作者简介:蔡晓琰(1988-),女,福建仙游人,博士生.
  • 基金资助:

    中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目/Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Y1117).

The Real Option Value Analysis of Income Adjustment during Operating Period in the Toll Road Public Private Partnership Projects

CAI Xiao-yan,ZHOU Guo-guang   

  1. School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China
  • Received:2016-11-02 Revised:2017-01-17 Online:2017-06-25 Published:2017-06-26

摘要:

收费公路PPP 项目在项目运营过程中,CPI 的变化影响项目的收益.在项目谈判阶段,分析CPI 对项目收益的影响方式,依据PPP 项目的风险共担、收益共享原则,对 CPI 影响下的社会资本收益不足或超额收益设定收益调节方法,能保障政府和社会资本双方收益、实现双方共赢.本文研究CPI 对收费公路PPP 项目运营期间收益的影响,提出能体现PPP项目投资回报机制的收益补偿和超额收益分享要求的应对CPI变化的收益调节模型,并用实物期权理论评价模型的期权价值.实证表明,收益调节模型能保障社会资本在收费公路PPP 项目运营中的收益,并可以为政府和社会资本的合理决策提供参考,实现合作共赢.

关键词: 系统工程, 收益调节, 实物期权, 收费公路PPP项目, CPI

Abstract:

CPI is an important factor that influences the earnings of toll road public private partnership (PPP) projects during the operating period. In order to ensure both government and private partners’incomes and achieve the win-win cooperation, it is necessary to analyze how CPI influence projects’incomes and make the income adjustment regulations to adjust the insufficient and excess income influenced by CPI based on the risk sharing and revenue sharing principle in the negotiation. This paper analyses the way that the CPI influences the operating incomes in the toll road PPP projects. This paper also puts forward the income adjustment model aimed to adjust income oriented to CPI influence, which reflects the requirements of income compensation and excess income sharing in return of investment mechanism of PPP projects. Moreover, the income adjustment model is evaluated by real option method. The empirical results show that this income adjustment model can protect the private partners’earnings in toll road PPP projects and provide reference for decision making of the government and private sectors, which makes a win- win situation of both sides.

Key words: systems engineering, income adjustment, real option, toll road PPP projects, CPI

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