纯郊区轨交线对房价的影响分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探索利用房价利益返还实施郊区线的可行性，针对郊区线对房价的影响展开研究. 将郊区线各实施阶段影响范围外房价设为参照组分析房价增值与否，并与市郊线进行对比. 对经典的特征价格模型进行改进，将房价的差值作为因变量构建双重差分模型分析房价增值规律. 东京都案例结果表明，郊区线会引起地价增值，但力度弱于市郊线. 郊区线在公告期到市中心单位时间节省引起的地价增值最大；地价增值影子价格随实施阶段的推移依次下降，且郊区线下降程度更甚，其增值效果的稳定性比市郊线弱；郊区线到郊区副中心单位时间节省引起的地价增值更稳定；到市中心单位时间节省带来的各圈层地价增值在公告期表现出明显的递远递减规律. 研究结果为决策者提供了定量参考依据.

关键词: 城市交通, 轨道交通郊区线, 双重差分模型, 房价, 实施阶段, 圈层

Abstract:

To explore the feasibility of introducing urban rail transit lines linking the new towns (LTT), the paper researches the impact on land price of LTT. Compare the average value in and out of the service area in announcement, construction and operation periods to evaluate whether the value uplift or not for LTT, taking the lines liking the new town to the CBD (LTC) as the benchmark. Then the difference in difference model (DID) is used to analyze the pattern. Case study of Tokyo shows LTT could add to the land value, however the uplift is lower than LTC. The pattern is as follows: LTC are expected extremely to link to the CBD of the city in announcement period; value uplift by one time saving of LTC are all lower than LSS except the announcement period. The value uplift by one time saving goes down as time goes on. For LTC, it goes down more rapidly than LTT. It means stability of value uplift for LTC is lower than LTT. Stability of value uplift by one time saving to the new town is more than that to CBD for LTC. Stability of value uplift by one time saving to CBD is more than that to satellite city for LTT. Value uplift in every distance band of service area in announcement period goes down by distance decay. The results supply a quantifying evidence for decision-maker.

Key words: urban traffic, rail transit line linking town to town, difference in difference model, property value, implementation phase, distance bands

中图分类号:

U268.6

李俊芳，刘志钢，胡华. 纯郊区轨交线对房价的影响分析[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2020, 20(1): 19-26.

LI Jun-fang, LIU Zhi-gang, HU Hua. Impact on Land Price of Urban Rail Transit Line Linking Town to Town[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2020, 20(1): 19-26.

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链接本文: http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/abstract/abstract19970.shtml

http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2020/V20/I1/19

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