考虑公交替代效应的城市轨道交通网络级联失效分析

doi:10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2025.06.017

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (6): 185-196.DOI: 10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2025.06.017

考虑公交替代效应的城市轨道交通网络级联失效分析

李贵阳，谢秉磊^* ，李晓丹

哈尔滨工业大学(深圳)，建筑学院，广东深圳518055

收稿日期:2025-08-25 修回日期:2025-10-28 接受日期:2025-11-04 出版日期:2025-12-25 发布日期:2025-12-24
作者简介:李贵阳(1994—)，男，山东潍坊人，博士生。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金 (71974043)。

Cascading Failure Analysis of Urban Rail Transit Network with Bus Substitution Effect

LI Guiyang, XIE Binglei^*, LI Xiaodan

School of Architecture, Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen), Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, China

Received:2025-08-25 Revised:2025-10-28 Accepted:2025-11-04 Online:2025-12-25 Published:2025-12-24
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China (71974043)。

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为量化公交网络对城市轨道交通站点故障引发级联失效的缓解作用，提出一种融合公交替代效应的耦合映像格子模型(SCML)。基于交通可达性定义轨道站点的公交替代效应，并通过多属性决策方法(CRITIC-TOPSIS法)将其量化为步行换乘便利程度和站点可达机会的加权值。设计映射函数刻画公交替代效应对站点状态的调节作用，进而改进耦合映像格子模型(CML)以模拟级联失效动态演化过程。构建分步失效站点比例等指标评估网络脆弱性，并以深圳地铁和公交网络为案例进行验证。研究表明：公交替代效应呈现空间异质性，城市核心区站点值较高；在中低扰动强度下，该效应可显著降低失效传播速度与范围，但在高强度干扰下缓解作用有限；与CML模型相比，SCML模型能更准确刻画轨道交通网络的脆弱性特征，触发网络崩溃的站点平均扰动强度阈值由1.7提升至2.2。研究结果为多模式交通系统的韧性评估提供了定量依据。

关键词: 城市交通, 公交替代效应, 耦合映像格子模型, 城市轨道交通网络, 级联失效

Abstract: This paper proposes an extended coupled map lattice (SCML) model that incorporates the bus substitution effect to evaluate the mitigating impact of bus networks on cascading failures triggered by disruptions in urban rail transit stations. The bus substitution effect is characterized in terms of transportation accessibility and quantified as a weighted combination of pedestrian transfer convenience and station access opportunities through the CRITIC-TOPSIS method. A mapping function is formulated to depict the regulatory role of the bus substitution effect on station states, and it is integrated into the CML framework to simulate the dynamic evolution of cascading failures. Several vulnerability indicators are defined, including the stepwise proportion of failed stations. The Shenzhen metro-bus system is used for the empirical validation. The results show that the bus substitution effect exhibits spatial heterogeneity, with higher values in the urban core and lower values in peripheral areas. Under low to moderate disturbance intensity, it substantially slows down and reduces the spread of failures, while its effect becomes limited under high-intensity disturbances. Compared with the CML model, the SCML model more accurately captures the vulnerability characteristics of urban rail transit network, raising the average perturbation intensity threshold for network collapse from 1.7 to 2.2. The findings provide quantitative evidence for assessing and enhancing the resilience of multimodal transportation systems.

Key words: urban traffic, bus substitution effect, coupled map lattice model, urban rail transit network, cascading failure

中图分类号:

U239.5

李贵阳, 谢秉磊, 李晓丹. 考虑公交替代效应的城市轨道交通网络级联失效分析[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2025, 25(6): 185-196.

LI Guiyang, XIE Binglei, LI Xiaodan. Cascading Failure Analysis of Urban Rail Transit Network with Bus Substitution Effect[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2025, 25(6): 185-196.

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http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2025/V25/I6/185

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考虑公交替代效应的城市轨道交通网络级联失效分析

Cascading Failure Analysis of Urban Rail Transit Network with Bus Substitution Effect

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