考虑船舶到港延误的班列时刻表优化

doi:10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2026.02.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为提升海铁联运体系中班轮与班列的协同效率，针对现有研究在班列-船舶衔接优化中对不确定因素考虑不足的问题，本文提出一种考虑船舶到港延误的班列时刻表优化方法。根据历史船舶到港延误数据拟合其概率分布，采用蒙特卡洛模拟从该分布抽样生成场景集合，在此基础上，构建以直取班列数量最大为第一优先目标，集装箱在港等待时间最小为第二优先目标和时刻表调整量最小为第三优先目标的混合整数规划模型，并运用分层序列法进行求解。以盐田港为例，验证模型。研究结果表明：该优化方法能有效应对船期扰动，显著提升班列-船舶衔接效率，其优化结果与稳定性均优于原时刻表和基于固定船期的确定性优化方法，相较于原时刻表和确定性优化策略，车船直取成功率分别提升约39.3%和16.8%，集装箱在港等待时间下降约83.1%和20.2%。研究成果揭示了增加班列时刻表弹性对抵御船期风险的重要性，为集装箱海铁联运协同调度提供理论依据，对推动“班列+班轮”铁水联运快线网络建设具有积极意义。

关键词: 综合交通运输, 时刻表优化, 混合整数规划, 集装箱海铁联运, 船舶到港延误, 车船直取

Abstract: To improve the coordination efficiency between liner vessels and rail services in sea-rail intermodal systems, this study develops an approach of timetable optimization that explicitly accounts for the uncertainties in vessel arrival times. The historical data of vessel delay are used to fit the delay distribution, and a scenario set is generated by sampling from this distribution with Monte Carlo simulation. Accordingly, a mixed-integer programming model is formulated with prioritized objectives: maximizing the number of train-vessel direct transfers as the first priority, minimizing the dwell time of containers at the port as the second, and minimizing timetable adjustments as the third. The model is solved by using a hierarchical sequential method, and validated with data from Yantian Port. The results show that the proposed approach effectively mitigates the impact of vessel-schedule disruptions and significantly enhances train-vessel coordination. Compared with the original timetable and a deterministic optimization strategy, the direct transfer rate increases by approximately 39.3% and 16.8%, respectively, while the dwell time of containers decreases by approximately 83.1% and 20.2%. These findings highlight the importance of the increasing timetable flexibility to manage vessel-schedule risks, and provide a methodological support for the coordinated scheduling of container sea-rail intermodal transport. It contributes to the development of“train+liner”fast intermodal networks.

Key words: integrated transportation, timetable optimization, mixed-integer programming, container sea-rail intermodal transport, vessel arrival delays, train-vessel direct transfer

中图分类号:

赵媛, 石柏松, 王丹. 考虑船舶到港延误的班列时刻表优化[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2026, 26(2): 35-46.

ZHAO Yuan, SHI Baisong, WANG Dan. Optimization of Train Timetables Considering Vessel Arrival Delays[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2026, 26(2): 35-46.

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链接本文: http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2026.02.004

http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2026/V26/I2/35

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