Abstract: Railway is of great significance to Xinjiang and its development. Factors both inside and outside railway are to be analyzed. so as to find out the factors that influence its
development. Meanwhile, this is to discuss the possibility applying ’linear combinative forecast method’ to evaluate the key indexes in its development. Therefore, by using the statistics over the years, here provides a scientific basis for the decisions of Xinjiang government and Xinjiang
railway transportation industry for their.

Key words: linear combinative forecast method, index, Xinjiang railway

摘要： 铁路对祖国西部边睡的新疆具有重要的意义，铁路的发展影响着新疆经济的发展.通
过对影响铁路发展的业内及业外因素的因子分析，找出影响其发展的重要因子;同时利用新疆
铁路运输历年来发展主要指标的统计数据，探讨线性组合预测方法在新疆铁路运输主要发展指 标预侧中的应用为国家、新疆维吾尔自治区政府及新疆铁路运输企业制定新疆铁路发展规划
提供科学依据.

关键词: 线性组合预测法, 发展指标, 新疆铁路