Forecast of Vehicle Population Based on Model of Econometrics

Abstract

Abstract: There is a close relationship between vehicle population and development of society and economy. By established a model of econometrics and the paper sets up the relation of function of vehicle population and development of society and economy, comparatively forecast vehicle population of some region in a short time. Based on the statistic data of Guangdong, this paper introduces the concrete process of setting up econometrics model and forcasting the vehicle population of Guangdong province in 2004 and 2005.

Key words: model of econometrics, province of Guangdong, vehicle population, forecast

摘要： 汽车保有量与社会经济的发展有着密切关系，通过建立计量经济学模型寻求汽车保有量和社会经济有关指标的函数关系，可以较为准确地预测一个地区短期内的汽车保有量.本文根据广东省的统计数据，给出建立计量经济学预测模型和进行各项检验的详细过程，并根据模型预测了广东省2004年和2005年的汽车保有量.

关键词: 计量经济学模型, 广东省, 汽车保有量, 预测

GONG Hua-wei, JIN Wen-zhou. Forecast of Vehicle Population Based on Model of Econometrics[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2005, 5(2): 74-78 .

龚华炜,靳文舟. 基于计量经济学模型的汽车保有量预测[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2005, 5(2): 74-78 .

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URL: http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/abstract/abstract17238.shtml

http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/Y2005/V5/I2/74

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Forecast of Vehicle Population Based on Model of Econometrics

基于计量经济学模型的汽车保有量预测

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