交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2004, Vol. 4 ›› Issue (3): 92-96 .

• 系统工程理论与方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

长大干线铁路客运量预测方法研究

赵长江   

  1. 铁道第三勘察设计院运输规划处，天津300142
  • 收稿日期:2004-06-07 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2004-08-01 发布日期:2004-08-01

A Passenger Demand Forecast for Great Railway Corridor Lines

ZHAO Chang-jiang   

  1. Third Survey & Design Institute of China railway, Tianjin 300142, China
  • Received:2004-06-07 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2004-08-01 Published:2004-08-01

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被引次数

91

摘要： 针对传统四阶段法不太适合长大铁路干线需求预测的实际，通过时四阶段需求预测方法及各种模型的改造，建立了一套适合我国铁路项目客运量预测的预测方法和程序.通过对京沪高速铁路的具体应用，论文就参数标定方法和应注意的问题提出了一些研究结论。

关键词: 铁路, 市场经济, 客运量, 预测方法

Abstract: Considering the practical in applicability of traditional four-stage transportation planning method on great railway lines, this paper analyses the characteristics of the railway corridor and reconstructs a serious of models to predict passenger transport demand of railway based on the background of the Beijing - Shanghai high speed railway. Some practical application results have been given to demonstrate their applicability. The paper also advances some conclusions in calibrating and validating parameters related to above models.

Key words: railway, market economy, passenger traffic volume, prediction method