关键词: 城市交通, 公交OD, 重力模型, 马尔可夫链, 公交出行距离转移曲线

Abstract: This paper introduces a method for traffic friction and transit trips forecasting between traffic zones to improve the accuracy of traditional 4-phase method. The traffic friction is defined by the shortest distance between the road’s nodes in each traffic zone. The method avoids the defects of traditional method for the traffic friction. Introducing the traffic friction into gravity model on trip distribution, the forecasting accuracy is improved. Based on the characteristics of present urban residents trip, total quantity of resident transit trips can be forecasted with the Markov chain method, and the residents transit trip proportion between every traffic zone can be forecasted with diversion curve of transit trip distance. The transit OD can be obtained on the basis of the total quantity of residents transit trips and transit trip proportion. The proposed quantitative method is more reasonable because the impact of the city’s landscaping planning and policy are taken into account.

Key words: urban traffic, public transit OD, gravity model, Markov chain, transit diversion curve of trip distance